Regression Part Two - It's Happening Already

So this post was essentially going to discuss which over-performing or under-performing teams I thought would regress or improve, and then the Yankees go ahead and make one of my points for me. I was marveling on Monday at how the Twins had managed to outscore the Yankees by 27 runs despite having an vastly inferior offense on paper. Three games later, and now they've only outscored them by 17 after a brutal 3 game sweep by scores of 12-4, 8-2, and 5-1. That's a run differential of +18 for the Yankees over just 3 days. I was discussing how surprisingly effective the Twins young starters had been; well, 3 games have passed and the ERAs of Nick Blackburn (3.65 to 3.83), Kevin Slowey (4.26 to 4.41), and Glen Perkins (3.84 to 4.08) have elevated. Slowey, in particular, has hit upon some hard times - in his last 3 outings he's given up 15 ER in 15 IP.


The Yankees, meanwhile, were under-performing their preseason expectations. On July 21st when I last wrote in this space, their run differential was +32. Today, it's +50. The Twinkies were at +33 - and after today's game, they're at +15. So it's evident just how dramatically three games can change the way the world looks. Suddenly the Yankees are surging and the Twins appear headed to the black hole of negative run differential. Suddenly the Yankees have roughly the same expected win-loss record (based on run differential) as the first place Rays - for the Yankees, 56-45, for the Rays, 55-45. A half-game difference. Meanwhile the left-for-dead Detroit Tigers now have a better expected win-loss record than the Twins. Why? Because of the drastic shift in run differential: the Tigers, in 3 days, went from a +6 to a +33. Yes, that is what playing the Royals will do to you. But the point remains valid - if the world seems upside down in July, sometimes you shouldn't buy the hype. Nobody picked the Twins over the Tigers in March, but on July 20th the Twins seemed obviously better. Three days later? Not so much.


Over in the AL East, the story is clearly the Rays, and they're far more than just lucky. They're actually very good. Their run differential suggests a team with a record of 55-45, while their actual record is 59-41. Four wins above your expected win-loss record isn't absurd. The 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks were famously outscored by their opponents last year. Their run differential was -20 and they won 90 games. A team that finished the season with that differential would normally be expected to win 79 games. The Rays this year are at +42, which is very good. But the two teams behind them have better marks. And if things continue to right themselves in the world of baseball, the Rays will finish the season behind both the Yankees and the Red Sox, unless they actually improve - which will be difficult because they're already playing a bit above their heads. The Rays are going to win the AL East sometime within the next 3 years. I'm just not convinced it will happen in this year.


I briefly touched upon the weirdness in the NL West last time, but it's worth exploring further. As I mentioned earlier, the D-Backs were outscored last year and won 90 games. That's not common. And as retribution, the D-Backs have outscored their oppponents by 12 runs this year and are sitting pretty at .500, 50 wins and 50 losses. After 100 games last year, Arizona had been outscored by 36 runs and were 52-48. Baseball is weird. Brady Anderson hit 50 home runs one year. Bill Veeck sent a midget up to draw a walk in 1951. Wille Hernandez won an MVP award. The 45-58 Colorado Rockies played in the World Freaking Series last year. You never know. The Diamondbacks are in many, if not all respects, a better team this year than they were last year...except that they're not. The Dodgers are 4 games under .500 but just 1.5 games out of first place. The Padres, who were a few good changeups away from a postseason berth last year, have been outscored by 106 runs this year. Four of the 5 teams in the NL West have run into poor luck this year based on their expected win-loss record, the sole exception being the Rockies, who are performing exactly the way the math says they should be.


Which teams are most likely to run wild in the second half? The Braves and the Athletics are both underperforming by 6 wins. If their luck improves, their records should too, which would make the A's dangerous wild card contenders and the Braves...well, probably still a third place team. The Marlins are overperforming by 6 wins, so expect them to slip some. But the Mets and Phillies are both performing close to their expected records and figure to end up 1-2. I think it's reasonable to expect the Tigers to make a strong run as well; I was pessimistic on their chances at a playoff berth before the season, more so than most, but I never thought they'd be this bad. Verlander seems to be coming on strong, and if Miguel Cabrera has a second half close to his career averages (.310/.386/.524) they'll start playing more like the team that Steve Phillips anointed "the best offense of all time". Before the season.

Regression to the mean and whatnot

I took a look at the standings yesterday. I devote several hours of each day thinking about, reading about, or occasionally writing about baseball, but for some reason the standings are generally the last thing I look at. But yesterday, on the heels of a Yankee victory, I felt bold enough to look at the standings. And it freaked me out. Did you guys know that the Minnesota Twins are really good? Or that everyone in the National League West is sub-atrocious? Or just how bad the Indians are? I had vague ideas that these things were happening in the world of baseball, but a simple look at the standings really hammered one thing home - baseball's weird. It's really, really weird.





The Twins traded one of the best pitchers of the decade this offseason, presumably entered "rebuilding" mode, and yet as of tonight they are 1/2 game back in the Central. I should know better by now, but I don't. Every year I look at the Twins roster with a mix of bemusement and disgust. Livan Hernandez is your ace? Mike Lamb is your starting 3rd baseman? You gave Nick Punto 472 at-bats last year? You traded Matt Garza? The Twins never look good to me on paper. They haven't for years. This year they looked particularly wretched, bad enough to keep the Royals some company near the cellar. And in a division with 2 powerhouses in Detroit and Cleveland (it's funny now, but it wasn't in April), they appeared to stand no chance whatsoever. Beyond Livan Hernandez, they were throwing out Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, and Glen Perkins, guys who all had pretty similar profiles - good minor league track records, but all command pitchers without much stuff who figured to get lit up if they were in the strike zone too much in the majors. Blackburn, in particular, figured to get pounded. He gave up nearly a hit per inning in the minors while striking out just 5.5 per 9. Here he is with 7 wins and a 3.65 ERA. How is that possible? The only weak link in what has turned out to be a very strong rotation has been Hernandez. As good and surprising as the Twins have been this year, can you imagine how much better they'd be if they decided to call up Francisco Liriano and DFA Livan Hernandez? Is it crazy to say he's worth at least 2 wins over the second half? As for the offense...would you believe they've outscored the Yankees by 27 runs? Neither would I.





So there they are. One-half of a game back. Behind which team, though? Behind the Indians, reigning Central champs and dudes who were one freaking game from the World Series last year? No sir. Behind the Tigers, you ask? Afraid not (and yeah, it feels awesome to have called that). They are 1/2 a game behind the...Chicago White Sox. Really? The White Sox? The PECOTA-hating weirdos who threw a ton of money at past-their-prime middle relievers this offseason? The team that refused to trade an ailing Joe Crede and instead sent their best prospect down to the minors to toil in a league he was clearly overqualified for? The team managed by Ozzie Guillen? Yes, yes, and sadly, yes.





I thought it was really, really dumb when Ken Williams threw big money at Scott Linebrink, who had been regressing every year and was being overvalued for his salad days in San Diego. Four years? 19 million? Moving from the NL to the AL, a large park to a small park? Well, here's his line this year: 2.37 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 32/6 K/BB rate. I didn't even think this deal would look good for one month, let alone four years, but at least for 2008, Linebrink has been an incredibly piece in the major's best bullpen. Octavio Dotel? Two years, $11 million? For a chronically injured relief pitcher with a declining K/IP ratio? Here's his line: 3.07 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 63 K in 44 innings. I laughed at both these deals because they seemed silly; here's a team, coming off a 90 loss season, that really thinks they have a shot in a division ruled by a surging Indians team and a Tigers team that just dropped a ton of money and talent on impact players. Instead, some strange things happened.



The Sox acquired Carlos Quentin, a talented but often injured young outfielder, from the Diamondbacks for Chris Carter, a 20 year old who had just hit 25 home runs in A-ball. Well, the D-Backs ended up flipping Carter for Danny Haren, which is all well and good. But Quentin, a guy who hit .214/.298/.349 in 81 games with the D-Backs last season, has been sensational. He's the impact corner outfield bat that Arizona is so sorely lacking. Quentin wasn't even guaranteed an everyday spot in Chicago. But this year he's hit 23 home runs, become an All-Star, and has been maybe the reason that the Pale Hose are sitting pretty atop their division. His line is .280/.380/.533 and he's knocked in 71 runs in 94 games, posting an OPS+ of 139.



Then there's the rotation. Gavin Floyd was cast off to the Sox by the Phillies, having worn out his welcome by stubbornly refusing to live up to his great potential. The Phils, an organization desperate to develop starting pitching, dealt a 23-year-old pitcher with a filthy curveball. That's how confident they were that he wouldn't amount to much. Well, he's got 10 wins and an ERA of 3.52. John Danks was in a similar situation in Texas. He was part of the vaunted D-V-D trio of pitching prospects the Rangers were developing - Danks, Volquez, and Diamond. You might know that Volquez guy. He's pretty decent. Texas basically gave up on all of these guys. They traded him to Chicago for Brandon McCarthy, who has been miserable or injured throughout his tenure with the Rangers. Meanwhile, Danks has blossomed this year - 7 wins, a 3.03 ERA, 97 Ks in 118 1/3 IP. Sidenote - can you imagine the Rangers rotation with Volquez and Danks in it? Can you even name a guy in their rotation now? (I guess that Josh Hamilton guy is OK, though).



Enough rambling - next I'll discuss some more weirdness throughout baseball (Cody Ross has more home runs than David Ortiz or Alfonso Soriano? Seriously? The Kansas City Royals are better than the Indians?) and delve into whether or not this is sustainable weirdness or more of a passing weirdness. We haven't even touched the Devil Rays.