I'm not a Houston Astros fan, but I can't help but notice how badly Roy Oswalt has struggled in his three starts this season. The reason is because I own him on a couple of fantasy teams. I watched his nightmarish start against the Marlins last week through my fingers, as he served up 4 home runs for the first time in his major league career over just 4 innings. When a pitcher as consistent as Roy Oswalt gives up 4 home runs in 4 innings, and 2 of the guys going deep are Mike Rabelo and Jorge Cantu, it's natural to assume that something might be wrong physically. Yet looking more closely at the pitches he's thrown tells a different and, I think, less troubling story.
Oswalt is a little out of whack, certainly. I can only speculate whether there's something wrong with him mechanically because I'm not an expert, or even an amateur, in breaking down pitchers' deliveries. Before we delve into what's different about Oswalt this year, let's recap his outings so far and how they compare to his career averages.
- Oswalt allowed 4 home runs in his last start against the Marlins, something he has never done in his career. He has given up as many as 3 just twice, once in 2003 and again in 2006. Interestingly, in both games, all three were solo home runs and were the only runs he allowed. He won both games.
- Oswalt has never allowed more than 18 home runs in a single season while averaging 222.1 innings a year. He has allowed 5 home runs in 16 IP this season.
- He didn't allow his 5th home run until his 8th start last season.
- He has given up 30 hits in 16 IP this season, spanning 3 starts. He allowed exactly 30 hits over his first 5 starts last season, spanning 35 innings.
- Oswalt didn't lose his third game until May 22nd last year, his 11th start. This year, 3 starts in and he's 0-3.
- Yet last year after 3 starts, Oswalt's K/BB was just 12/8, over 21.2 IP. This year, his K/BB is 12/2 over 16 IP.
It's that last bit of information that I think is most telling. Oswalt is in the strike zone. A lot. All up in the strike zone. He has a K:BB ratio of 6:1. This trumps his career K:BB of 3.63:1. That's awesome. You would typically expect a pitcher whose control improves that much to see his baseline statistics improve accordingly. That isn't the case here. Oswalt's career WHIP is an excellent 1.21; this year, he's sporting a WHIP of 2.00. So whatever gains Oswalt has temporarily made in terms of control, he's lost in the 30 hits he's allowed. Oswalt had a career high WHIP of 1.32, has seen his K/9 drop for a few years, and he's officially on the wrong side of 30, so there's evidence he could be in slight decline. But what we're seeing this year is nothing short of horrendous. Still, I don't expect it to last.
First, I have to thank this lovely man named Josh Kalk, who has this blog. His PitchFX plots are invaluable when doing this kind of research. Now, on to the goods - here are the percentages of pitches thrown by Oswalt.
Here are the links to Oswalt's 2007 player card and his 2008 card:
Let's compare his 2007 season through his 2008 season thus far:
2008: 70.09% Fastballs
13.08 Curveballs
14.02 Sliders
.93 Splitters
1.87 Cutters
2007: 65.53 Fastballs
17.09 Curveballs
13.09 Sliders
4.33 Changeups
What immediately jumps out is that Oswalt no longer features a changeup, or least hasn't yet featured a changeup. He has thrown 1 splitter and 2 cutters, however. What is preventing him from throwing his change? He threw only 47 of them last year, so it's primarily a show me pitch, but what has made him scrap it completely in favor of two pitches he's never featured? You can understand an unsuccessful guy tinkering with new pitches in an attempt to add a couple of years to his career, but we're talking about arguably one of the 3 most effective starting pitchers of the last 7 years. I don't think the absence of a changeup is causing Oswalt's issues, because again, he has never primarily featured it and it wasn't a plus pitch. I think it's just interesting to take note that a perennial Cy Young candidate finds it necessary to mess with his arsenal.
Already through 3 starts, Oswalt has worked himself into 3 ball counts 8 times, about 2.66 times per start. In 32 starts in 2007, he was in 41 3 ball counts, about 1.28 times per start. Which brings us to a quick conclusion: he's getting into more 3 ball counts, being forced to throw his fastball, and hitters are sitting on it. Major league hitters are fastball hitters. Even guys like Mike Rabelo, a relatively unproven player, can sit on one if they know or even suspect it's coming, and hit it a long way.
He's worked himself into only 4 0-2 counts in three starts. In 2-2 counts he's throwing his fastball 76.92% of the time, up from 62.5 last year. This is telling me he's afraid of working himself into 3-2 counts. On the 6 occasions he has worked 3-2 counts, he's thrown his fastball 6 times. He's also been in 2 3-1 counts and thrown his fastball on both occasions. This helps explain his 6:1 KK/BB ratio because he's been a 1 pitch pitcher in 3 ball counts.
I admit to not having seen Oswalt pitch more than a dozen times in my life because of where I live, but what I have always seen from him is a devastating spike curveball. That's his out pitch. So why isn't he throwing it more when he works himself into 2 strike counts? Let's look at the curveballs that he has thrown so far this year. He's throwing them nearly 5 MPH slower than in 2007 and there is less vertical and lateral movement on them. Meanwhile, both his fastball and slider are moving more than they did last year. So he must be having command issues. But there's nothing fundamentally wrong with his fastball, as he's shown no significant loss in velocity, especially for April.
I think Oswalt is just trying to find his curveball right now. He has very good velocity and good control but seemingly very little command of any of his pitches - meaning they are in the strike zone, just not in the area of the strike zone that Oswalt intends them to be. Perhaps if he was spotting his fastball better or throwing his slider more, it would make up for the lack of depth and velocity in his curveball, but he's unable to do either of those right now. I'm not a medical professional but the fact that Oswalt's fastball velocity remains relatively unchanged doesn't raise any red flags for me. This could simply be a matter of a great pitcher struggling with the feel for his best pitch. I suspect it's mechanical but I'll leave that to this guy to decide.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Soria Should Be Starting
The intro to Buster Olney's blog today featured a story about Joakim Soria, the Royals young closer, who many are likening to a young Mariano Rivera. I watch the Royals as much as I possibly can - not because I'm a masochist, but because I have tons of family in Kansas City who are die-hards and I like to be able to keep up with them when they talk. I remember back to last spring, thinking that the Royals potentially had scored a coup when they selected Soria in the Rule V draft. Then, a few days later, he pitched a perfect game in Mexican winter ball, and Kevin Towers was presumably rather angry at himself. And so far, so good - Soria posted a 189 ERA+ in 69 high-leverage innings last year, and he looked absolutely filthy this week, striking out 10 batters in 5 innings and saving 3 games.
So the Mo comparisons are apt in that respect - both pitchers have devastating stuff. And they both throw cut fastballs. Yet Soria is still a month shy of his 24th birthday, and by all accounts has at least 3 plus pitches - the aforementioned cutter, a wicked change with terrific arm-side tail, and a big 12-to-6 yakker. He throws all these pitches in the strike zone and as recently as one year ago, had the stamina to hold his stuff into the 9th inning and finish off a perfect game. So, with all due respect, what in the world is this guy doing pitching one inning a night, and only when the Royals have the lead (which, in the course of recent events, has been rare)?
As a Yankees fan (don't hold it against me), I understand the value of a dominant closer as well as anyone. But what made Rivera such an ideal candidate for a move from the rotation to the bullpen - namely that he has only one true plus pitch - is what makes Soria's emergence as a closer rather frustrating. Closers should always be a luxury item for small-market teams, and they should be traded once their value is at its peak as a surefire way of restocking a farm system. Tampa Bay did this a couple of years ago with Danys Baez, trading him to the Dodgers for Edwin Jackson. Granted, Jackson hasn't panned out, but he remains a young starter with electric stuff, and he was acquired for a relief pitcher who has been either hurt or ineffective ever since. Last year, the Pirates turned Mike Gonzalez into Adam LaRoche. Even more recently, Arizona traded Jose Valverde, fresh off a season in which he saved 47 games and received an MVP vote an finished 6th in the Cy Young voting, for 3 players. This is a guy who was one year removed from an ERA of 5.84. Now, one good year and 47 saves later, he's worth three players.
It's always been my belief that closers - merely reasonably effective closers, not studs like Rivera, Nathan, or Papelbon - more or less grow on trees. They might be failed starters, they might be setup men who need only the opportunity, they might be 38 year-old Japanese men with funky deliveries, they might even be homophobic pot-bellied men with stupid facial hair. The point is, if you look hard enough, you can usually find one. What is increasingly difficult to find, however, is a good starting pitcher, and that's exactly what Joakim Soria has a great chance to be. Joe Nathan is closing because he couldn't hack it as a starter; we don't know this for sure about Joakim Soria. He deserves every chance to prove this to the Royals before he's branded closer of the present. The Indians, more than any recent team I can recall, proved last year that you don't need a dominant, lights-out guy in the 9th inning to win a division, and their failing at reaching the World Series didn't have anything to do with Borowski, as many predicted it would. Making the decision to start Joakim Soria over a John Bale or a Brett Tomko every 5th day would figure to be a massive improvement.
And yes, you could replace any instances of "Joakim Soria" with "Joba Chamberlain" and "Royals" with "Yankees" and you've pretty much have my take on that one as well.
Other cool stuff this week: Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez combined to strike out 18 over 12 2/3 IP for the Reds. The baseball gods do have a sense of humor, because Dusty Baker might be the only manager in baseball who could mess this up...Josh Hamilton golfed a JJ Putz fastball off his shoetops into the right field stands in Seattle to give Texas a win on Tuesday. I know spring statistics are generally meaningless, but Hamilton was unreal all of March and he's taken it with him into April. He's become someone whose every at-bat is unmissable...The Tigers got trounced 13-2 on Sunday to drop to 0-6, and Miguel Cabrera was booed as he bounced into his second double play of the evening. The honeymoon ended pretty quick there. Steve Phillips called the Tigers offense "the best in the history of baseball" on Baseball Tonight, and that was before Opening Day even happened. I will enjoy this week of looking like a genius.
So the Mo comparisons are apt in that respect - both pitchers have devastating stuff. And they both throw cut fastballs. Yet Soria is still a month shy of his 24th birthday, and by all accounts has at least 3 plus pitches - the aforementioned cutter, a wicked change with terrific arm-side tail, and a big 12-to-6 yakker. He throws all these pitches in the strike zone and as recently as one year ago, had the stamina to hold his stuff into the 9th inning and finish off a perfect game. So, with all due respect, what in the world is this guy doing pitching one inning a night, and only when the Royals have the lead (which, in the course of recent events, has been rare)?
As a Yankees fan (don't hold it against me), I understand the value of a dominant closer as well as anyone. But what made Rivera such an ideal candidate for a move from the rotation to the bullpen - namely that he has only one true plus pitch - is what makes Soria's emergence as a closer rather frustrating. Closers should always be a luxury item for small-market teams, and they should be traded once their value is at its peak as a surefire way of restocking a farm system. Tampa Bay did this a couple of years ago with Danys Baez, trading him to the Dodgers for Edwin Jackson. Granted, Jackson hasn't panned out, but he remains a young starter with electric stuff, and he was acquired for a relief pitcher who has been either hurt or ineffective ever since. Last year, the Pirates turned Mike Gonzalez into Adam LaRoche. Even more recently, Arizona traded Jose Valverde, fresh off a season in which he saved 47 games and received an MVP vote an finished 6th in the Cy Young voting, for 3 players. This is a guy who was one year removed from an ERA of 5.84. Now, one good year and 47 saves later, he's worth three players.
It's always been my belief that closers - merely reasonably effective closers, not studs like Rivera, Nathan, or Papelbon - more or less grow on trees. They might be failed starters, they might be setup men who need only the opportunity, they might be 38 year-old Japanese men with funky deliveries, they might even be homophobic pot-bellied men with stupid facial hair. The point is, if you look hard enough, you can usually find one. What is increasingly difficult to find, however, is a good starting pitcher, and that's exactly what Joakim Soria has a great chance to be. Joe Nathan is closing because he couldn't hack it as a starter; we don't know this for sure about Joakim Soria. He deserves every chance to prove this to the Royals before he's branded closer of the present. The Indians, more than any recent team I can recall, proved last year that you don't need a dominant, lights-out guy in the 9th inning to win a division, and their failing at reaching the World Series didn't have anything to do with Borowski, as many predicted it would. Making the decision to start Joakim Soria over a John Bale or a Brett Tomko every 5th day would figure to be a massive improvement.
And yes, you could replace any instances of "Joakim Soria" with "Joba Chamberlain" and "Royals" with "Yankees" and you've pretty much have my take on that one as well.
Other cool stuff this week: Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez combined to strike out 18 over 12 2/3 IP for the Reds. The baseball gods do have a sense of humor, because Dusty Baker might be the only manager in baseball who could mess this up...Josh Hamilton golfed a JJ Putz fastball off his shoetops into the right field stands in Seattle to give Texas a win on Tuesday. I know spring statistics are generally meaningless, but Hamilton was unreal all of March and he's taken it with him into April. He's become someone whose every at-bat is unmissable...The Tigers got trounced 13-2 on Sunday to drop to 0-6, and Miguel Cabrera was booed as he bounced into his second double play of the evening. The honeymoon ended pretty quick there. Steve Phillips called the Tigers offense "the best in the history of baseball" on Baseball Tonight, and that was before Opening Day even happened. I will enjoy this week of looking like a genius.
Friday, April 4, 2008
Girardi and the Bench
Three games in for the Yankees and I think Joe Girardi deserves good marks. There hasn't been a hell of a lot to judge him on, but he hasn't screwed anything up yet either.
I do take issue with two things:
1 - I think he left Moose in for a batter too long on Wednesday. This whole notion that a starting pitcher has the right to try and finish an inning is a bit ludicrous. Moose doesn't have an outpitch and was getting himself into trouble the entire game. A few DPs saved his arse from having a very rough outing. If you're willing to bring in Hawkins, a right hander as well, to get one out, bring him in for two. You're pretty much guaranteed he's got more stuff than Moose.
2 - Giambi facing a lefty in the seventh inning? Really?
I don't know if this is a comment on the need for Giambi's offense (currently in an O-for) or a comment of the lack of defense off the bench, but either way, Giambi will be on the DL by May at this rate. Girardi needs to get the bench involved, not only to get them playing but to avoid a minor mutiny. You can't play guys just to make them happy, but you also can't completely avoid your bench for three days either.
I do take issue with two things:
1 - I think he left Moose in for a batter too long on Wednesday. This whole notion that a starting pitcher has the right to try and finish an inning is a bit ludicrous. Moose doesn't have an outpitch and was getting himself into trouble the entire game. A few DPs saved his arse from having a very rough outing. If you're willing to bring in Hawkins, a right hander as well, to get one out, bring him in for two. You're pretty much guaranteed he's got more stuff than Moose.
2 - Giambi facing a lefty in the seventh inning? Really?
I don't know if this is a comment on the need for Giambi's offense (currently in an O-for) or a comment of the lack of defense off the bench, but either way, Giambi will be on the DL by May at this rate. Girardi needs to get the bench involved, not only to get them playing but to avoid a minor mutiny. You can't play guys just to make them happy, but you also can't completely avoid your bench for three days either.
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