Non-roster guys with a chance to stick - Part Three (The Finale)

The final installment features a Sal Fasano sighting and a bunch of old dudes in San Francisco - shocking, right?









Philadelphia Phillies: Kris Benson, SP









This is a pretty obvious fit; the Phillies are starved for starting pitching and Benson was starved for a job. On paper the Phils rotation lines up as Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton. Does that look like a starting 5 that can compete with the Mets - or even the Braves, for that matter? That's before even considering that Kendrick struck out an appalling 49 hitters in 121 IP, Jamie Moyer is 45 years old and had an ERA+ of 92 last season, Myers spent last season in the bullpen, Cole Hamels finished the year with elbow problems and a drop in velocity, and Adam Eaton is Adam Eaton (6.29 ERA, 73 ERA+, 1.627 WHIP). And the Mets have Johan Santana. Do I think Benson is going to cure all that ails the Phillies? Absolutely not. But someone has to start games for the Phillies and all five of their guys have significant question marks. Things could get real ugly in Philly this season. Or they could hit enough to make it not even matter. Count on the ugly.









Pittsburgh Pirates: T.J Beam, RP








Beam is a hard throwing former Yankees prospect who ran afoul of Joe Torre by not being immediately awesome. And if he had been immediately awesome, Torre would have ran afoul of Beam's career by using him for the next 46 consecutive games and personally scheduling him an appointment with James Andrews. So consider it a blessing in disguise, Mr. Beam, that Carl Pavano is the stand-up guy that he is - if he had accepted minor league deal instead of insisting that he remain on the major league roster (even though he has no hope or intention of pitching for the Yankees ever again) - you never would have been bumped from the 40-man and wound up in Pirates camp. Beam struck out 45 in 47.1 IP at AAA last season, while walking only 10, and he's with an organization starved for pitching. Good match.









Seattle Mariners: Greg Norton, 4C









The Mariners are positioning themselves to have a bench with only one left-handed bat - and that's Brad Wilkerson, who might become a starter if the Mariners determine that Wladimir Balentien isn't ready. Norton is a switch-hitter, plays all four corners, and in 2006 with Tampa Bay hit .296/.374/.520 in nearly 300 ABs. Norton has always had some pop and some patience which is why it's puzzling that he's so rarely employed at the major league level. I think he's a good fit with this team, particularly with Richie Sexson having just "hit" .185/.293/.392 against righties last season.









St. Louis Cardinals: Colby Rasmus, CF









Who plays in the outfield for this team? Jim Edmonds' departure and Juan Encarnacion's reportedly career-ending eye injury have left the Cards riddled with holes. Of all the outfielders on their 40-man, the only natural center-fielder I see is Skip Schumaker. Do you want Skip Schumaker starting in center for your team, especially if you insist you intend to contend? LaRussa may intend to have an adventure with Rick Ankiel in center and start Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick at the corners, but that looks like an awfully unproductive group, particularly if you're as convinced as I am that Rick Ankiel will be exposed badly this year. And I'm not even going to comment on the absurdity of Juan Gonzalez being in anyone's camp. So that leaves super-prospect Colby Rasmus, a 21 year-old center fielder who hit .275/.381/.551 at AA last season. He walked 70 times and swiped 18 bases while being caught just 3 times. If any team is likely to sign an unemployed guy like Corey Patterson or Kenny Lofton before spring is out, it's the Cardinals. But I take the chance on the young guy with power, speed, and patience.










San Diego Padres: Jeff DaVanon, OF








I still like DaVanon as a switch-hitter who can play all three outfield positions well and run a little bit. To me, that's your ideal bench player. The Padres acquired Jim Edmonds to play center every day, but Edmonds is nearly a lock to miss some time this year and he hit .198/.286/.346 against lefties last year. Scott Hairston might also be exposed as an everyday player and he's not a natural OF. In addition, the Padres may try to push another natural IF in Chase Headley into left field. I think with an outfield like that, you need a competent defensive sub who can fill in at all three corners and spell Edmonds against lefties once a week or so. DaVanon is the closest thing to that guy in the Padres camp.









San Francisco Giants: Scott Williamson, RP








Do I have to pick anyone here? Even the Giants spring training invitees are old and devoid of upside - reliever Keichi Yabu is 40, 1B Scott McClain is 36, RP Bartolome Fortunato is 34 (what a name!) and RP Scott Williamson is 32. I'll pick Williamson because he's a spring chicken by comparison and his career never seems to die despite the fact that he hasn't been healthy for 4 years. I understand the intrigue with his arm because he strikes out a ton of guys, but he's almost never on the mound. I guess he's the closest thing to an upside play the Giants have in their camp. Sorry, Giants fans. Long year ahead.









Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria, 3B









Akinori Iwamura has already begun his transition to 2B (where his bat plays a lot better anyway) in preparation for the arrival of perhaps the most highly-regarded prospect in baseball. The Rays are going to be a lot of fun to watch this year and a real pain to play. No team will be looking forward to a three-game series that lines up Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. BJ Upton is only getting better, Carlos Pena has established himself as a force, Carl Crawford, who seems like he's been around forever, is still only 26...and then there's Longoria. The 22 year-old was the first overall pick by the then Devil Rays in 2006 and here he is two years later, ready to inherit the everyday 3B job after hitting .304/.388/.546 with 44 home runs in just 2 minor league seasons. I think it's safe to say he'll be real good, and as soon as this year.









Texas Rangers: Chris Shelton, 1B








The Rangers picked up Ben Broussard this offseason, and Broussard has, correctly, been identified by all of his past employers as a platoon player (.227/.290/.399 career against southpaws). But looking at the Texas' 40-man roster, it looks at first glance like they might play Big Ben everyday due to lack of other options. But among their non-roster invitees is forgotten man Chris Shelton. Remember in 2006 when the Tigers hit the ground running and Shelton was leading the majors in basically every hitting category through April? Seems like a long time ago. When Shelton regressed to the mean, Jim Leyland and staff got impatient and banished Shelton to the minors while acquiring Sean Casey. Has that move ever made sense to anyone? Anyway, aside from drawing 83 walks, Shelton wasn't all that impressive in AAA last year, but if any player besides Elijah Dukes screams "change of scenery" more than Shelton, I don't know who he is (actually, I think I misheard; Dukes was screaming "incarcerate me!"). I think he could form a pretty good two-headed monster with Broussard and give the Rangers at least league-average production at 1B.









Toronto Blue Jays: Travis Snider, OF









Sal Fasano is in the Blue Jays camp. I root for no man over Sal Fasano. I lived in Philadelphia during the "Sal's Pals" craze, when Fasano had an epic Fu Manchu and sent free pizza up to his fan club in the upper deck every night. He was traded to the Yankees right before the deadline that year (2006) and the hearts of thousands of cheesesteak-eaters broke, especially when pictures of Sal, sans beard due to Yankee facial hair rules, were seen in Philadelphia newspapers. As much as I love Fasano and want him to succeed, I'd have to put him at least fourth on the catching depth chart in Toronto behind Gregg Zaun, Rod Barajas, and Curtis Thigpen. To be honest, this Toronto roster looks to be competition-free for the most part. I suppose there's a possibility that the Blue Jays stop calling Matt Stairs an outfielder, Reed Johnson isn't healthy or good, and Travis Snider passes Adam Lind on the Blue Jays depth chart, but it's remote. For the record, Snider is a 20 year-old lefty who has posted a .316/.388/.538 line in 2 minor league seasons. He's a good bet to make an impact in the future, but I don't think his time is now.









Washington Nationals: Humberto Cota, C









The Nats have a dude named Jim Ed Warden, and true to the mental image that popped in my head the second I saw that name, he's 6'7" and from Tennessee. Unfortunately, he's 28 and not much of a prospect. I think the most likely man to make the opening day roster is Humberto Cota, a catcher who has spent parts of seven years in the majors with the Pirates. The Nationals signed Paul Lo Duca, but his offseason knee surgery was enough of a worry to encourage them to pick up Johnny Estrada. Obviously if both of these guys are healthy come Opening Day, the Nats are covered in the catching department. But if Lo Duca isn't ready to go by then, Cota is the most experienced backup catcher they have. I'd imagine they'll want Jesus Flores to get a full year of at bats in the minors after snatching him from the Mets in the Rule V last year and storing him on the 40-man all season. That would make Cota the token backup. Not an exciting choice, but there it is.









That concludes my nerdy and exhaustive look at non-roster invitees this spring. Let the competition begin.

Bonds Patient Once Again

Spring Training has started. Even Alex Rodriguez is supposed to show up on Wednesday. The seeds of a new season have been planted.



And yet, Barry Bonds does not have a contract.



I never thought the day would come when a player would alienate the baseball community so much that he could post at least a .999 OPS over the previous sixteen seasons and not have a job at spring training. It's defies logic. But Barry, once again, has done the seemingly impossible.



Of course, the lack of a contract probably stems from his salary demands, which is likely a ton of money for a guy who can't play the outfield, hasn't run out a ground ball in four seasons, alienates most of the players around him, and is currently under indictment for federal perjury. Indeed, Bonds comes with a large set of baggage that few could match. And, he has an ego to boot.



Then there's the little matter of the PR hit your team would take upon announcing that Bonds has been signed. Nothing raises a team's morale more than hearing their hometown fans boo one of the greatest hitters of all time, shouting "Balco!" and steroids every time he comes to the plate. Sure, none of it will bother Barry. He's lived through it already and probably would perform regardless. And yet, the fans probably wouldn't relent. Barry may be the one player who can't win over the hometown crowd just by hitting the cover off the ball.



When the Giants decided they were done with Barry Bonds, it may have officially closed the door on one of the greatest, most controversial athletes to ever play the game. Barry thrived in San Francisco. The city somehow managed to look away from all the rumors and speculation that circled Bonds and gave him the benefit of the doubt as he knocked off record after record. Once he finally toppled Henry Aaron, the Giants finally had enough, announcing they wouldn't offer him another contract.



Barry seemed stunned. After all he did for San Francisco, the records, the attendance, the in-fighting, the bad press, the controversy, his entourage, his inflexibility. How could they cut him loose?



If Barry can't exist in San Francisco, where his name is as remains as untarnished as it could possibly be, how could another major league team even consider signing on such a nightmare?


But if you're team needs a power hitting DH, what a way to fill the hole.

Clemens and McNamee: Dissecting the Public Opinion

We're two days past The Showdown at Capitol Hill and the papers and IntraWeb have been swirling with opinions, body language "experts," and blowhards
like me telling you what to think.  The testimony before Congress didn't clear up many facts or determine who was lying the least, but instead raised
more fodder for the back pages.

It isn't worth recapping the news in this space; there's plenty of prettier web sites with AP feeds that can do that for you.  Instead, we're going to
dissect what the popular opinions are and see how they stand up to what actually happened.


Andy Pettitte was the key to the hearings
True.  Without Pettitte's testimony, these hearings would have been a rehash of what we've read in the papers for the last two months.  Its difficult to question the motivation behind Pettitte's statements because of his relationship with Clemens.  Pettitte is protecting himself, his family, and his career by providing the truth as he knows it.

Some people have speculated why Pettitte wouldn't simply say that he didn't recall the conversations with Clemens and McNamee.  With Pettitte having
already admitted that he took HGH, it would seem highly unlikely that conversations never happened.  Any lack of recollection on Andy's part would
have raised the suspicion level on both him and Clemens.  Plus, if you know anything about Andy Pettitte as a person, his is a terribly honest person.  The Yankees were comfortable enough with Andy to give him a player option for 2007, despite a history of elbow problems.  They knew Andy wouldn’t take advantage of the situation.

That doesn't make Pettitte a rat as some people have suggested. Clemens is responsible for his own actions as is Pettitte.  Roger can only blame himself for the predicament he is in right now.  Expecting Pettitte to take the fall with him is unfair.


Knoblauch's testimony corroborates McNamee's claims
False.  Knoblauch’s deposition gives no relevant information regarding Clemens.  Knobby only
speaks about his own circumstances and reveals that he self administered more HGH when with the Royals.  He also claims that there wasn't much opportunity for him to know Pettitte or Clemens since pitchers and position players don't socialize much, yet he bought some HGH through Jason Grimsley,
a relief pitcher.  Hmmmm...


Clemens threw his wife under the bus to protect himself
False.  There's a couple of issues at play in this one.

The idea that Debbie Clemens would have gotten HGH from Brian McNamee without Roger's knowledge is absurd.  This was supposedly in 2003, five years after Clemens had first taken steroids in Toronto.  What knowledge would Debbie have of HGH?  Under what circumstances would Brian McNamee find himself discussing HGH with Debbie without Roger present?  What would Clemens do to McNamee, his employee, when he found out McNamee injected Debbie in the butt, in their bedroom, without his knowledge or presence?  You think he might have fired him?

It doesn't make sense that Clemens would have had no involvement in his wife's usage.  Claiming that isn't throwing her under the bus, either.

For one, its stands to reason that Debbie was aware Roger would portray the scenario as he did.  And why would she say no?  Her livelihood is as much
tied to Roger's success as anyone.  She is much less of a public figure and could easily take a hit for the cause of clearing Roger's name.  For all we
know, she did her best Lady McBeth and encouraged Roger to take steroids in the first place.  She has certainly benefited from his earnings since 1998.  
She hasn't been asked to testify under oath and they are admitting she did HGH, as if admitting that one nugget of truth absolves the surrounding dishonesty.

What's missing in this conversation is the approach to HGH taken in the Clemens household.  If Debbie was in need of some help, wouldn't she consult a doctor before going to her husbands trainer for medication?  If McNamee hadn't introduced HGH to Roger previously, why would the assumption even be made that McNamee could provide such a substance?  And if McNamee thought that Clemens wanted nothing to do with such substances, would he even dare
bringing up the idea of Debbie using them?


These hearings were about steroids
False.  These hearings were about perjury.

The reason these hearings happened is because Roger Clemens has been telling everyone who will listen that Brian McNamee lied, under oath, to George Mitchell and federal investigators.  Clemens has made such an uproar over the last few months that the integrity of the Mitchell report, and therefore former Senator George Mitchell, have come into question.

In order to protect the report and their chum, Congress needed to get Clemens on the Hill under oath to testify.  Whether they heard and received enough evidence to bring perjury charges against Clemens or McNamee remains to be seen, but remember, prosecutors in San Francisco spent four years building a case against Bonds.

The door isn't closed on this matter yet.

Clemens, Congress, and the Dog and Pony Show

There's a phrase used to describe people who go out of their way to work with famous people, not for their talent, but simply because they're famous.  Those people are known as starf*#kers.

Ladies and gentlemen, allow me to introduce you to the 110th Congress: starf*#kers.

The Steroids Rodeo Revue returns to Washington DC tomorrow, but the cast of characters will be a thinner than advertised.  Chuck "Twelfth Row" Knoblauch, Andy Pettitte, and Kirk Radomski have all been excused from testifying before a Congressional Committee in public after testifying in private, under oath.

That leaves only the two stars, Brian McNamee and Roger Clemens to headline the main event.

What's the point?  Both McNamee and Clemens gave sworn testimony to the Committee as well.  They have information from both men, under oath, as to what their participation was or wasn't in the world of steroids.  So why do we need them testifying in public to simply reiterate what they said behind closed doors?

Well, I see a couple of reasons:

1) Congress wants to look like it's doing something.  Sure, this isn't as trivial as Arlen Specter probing Spygate and the New England Patriots, but on the grand scale of priorities in Washington, this should fall pretty far down on the list.  So this might be explained by-

2) Congress wants to be in the limelight.  It is, after all, an election year.  And what better way to appear as an active Congressman and look like you care about what's happening in the world than jumping all over backpage news?  Nevermind that the front page says we're in a recession and people are dying in Iraq and Hillary cried and Britney is %&#$in' nuts.  An athlete took steroids!  Convene an expensive commission that will achieve absolutely nothing but headlines and buzz!

Of course, they may actually be working this week amidst pressing the flesh with 300 game winners.  And if they are, they might be using the testimony of Pettitte and Radomski to-

3) Paint Clemens into a corner.  Pettitte's testimony was reported to be inconsistent, rambling, but lo and behold, in line with McNamee and not Clemens, hence Pettitte's request to not testify in public.  Pettitte doesn't want to go on national television and sell out his friend by calling him a steroid user.

But that doesn't mean that Congress can't.  If they have sworn testimony from Pettitte that he either knew Clemens was doing steroids or he discussed it with McNamee, Roger is going to have to explain this under oath, which of course leaves him open to perjury charges.

And that really seems to be the whole point of this Congressional exercise.  Clemens has been shooting his mouth off since the Mitchell report was released, discrediting a former Senator's investigation which, in many circles, is considered flawed if not terribly circumstantial and incomplete.  But Roger has insulted the Old Boys Network and all the autographs and photo ops he hands out in Washington this month may not prevent them from swooping down and cornering him in a lie.

There's much bigger fish to fry, both in Washington in general and in baseball.  The Moby Dick in this case is Bud Selig.

John "Hate Man" Rocker on an ESPN radio station yesterday that he tested positive for steroids in 2000.  Not news since Rocker's name appeared in the Mitchell report and, if you'd seen him pitch in his prime, you'd be a fool to think he wasn't on steroids.  But Rocker went on to explain that the test was administered by Major League Baseball, and that the league and players association provided doctors to counsel on how to properly use steroids.  The test was administered after Rocker was suspended by MLB for saying mean things about New Yorkers.

I love a good conspiracy as much as anyone and nothing would make me happier than to believe that Bud Selig had a special team of doctors in an underground lab concocting the best way for baseball players to maximize steroid usage and therefore maximize profits.  Because we all know that Bud's goal is to maximize profits, whether at the expense of the games integrity or not.

But this seems a little far fetched even for me to accept.  We're talking about a conspiracy that reaches far beyond anything we've imagined to this point that involves dozens of people.  I can't see that happening.

I can, however, see Bud Selig sitting on this information and not doing much about it.  MLb's response to Rocker's comments:

"As part of the disciplinary process [for his meanness], Mr. Rocker was referred to the confidential Employee Assistance Program," Major League Baseball said in a statement. "Any test of Mr. Rocker would have been conducted by professionals who ran the EAP. Those professionals were obligated to maintain the confidentiality of the result and to use it in developing a treatment and education program for Mr. Rocker. Further discipline was not an option legally available to Major League Baseball at that time."

The statement says that the test results from the EAP were confidential.  What it doesn't say is the level of that confidentiality.  Does that mean it remained confidential to the public?  To Rocker's employer? 

This is baseball's way of making it seem like they didn't know about Rocker's test when, if they truly didn't know, they would have come out and said it.  The place is called the Employee Assistance Program.  It is based on you being an employee somewhere, which means your company has a direct interest in what they find.  You can be sure that baseball knew the results of his test.

Once again, there is another incident where baseball had documented proof of a player either using steroids or being found with steroids and nothing was done.  Many of the incidents detailed in the Mitchell report were a matter of public record.  Baseball could have easily cited those incidents, referred to others as private matters, and proclaimed that the sport had a problem.  The commissioners office could have taken the high road and put the pressure, through the public, on the players to come to the table and help solve the problem.

The commish didn't do that.  Instead, he hired a former Senator to conduct a limp investigation that went easy on the commissioners office and came down hard on the players.  And now, Roger Clemens has spoken up enough to further push the blame squarely on the players and further away from the only person who could have steered this problem off at the pass.

And Congress is falling right in line.  Bud Selig is either an incredibly lucky man or has all the makings of a very successful evil genius  Either way, his failure is the reason we're here today.

Non-roster guys with a chance to stick - Part Two

This round features several major league veterans looking to hang on for another year, including the exciting reunion of Joe Torre and one of his most famously abused pitchers!





Florida Marlins: Jorge Cantu, IF




It was only 2005 when Cantu posted an OPS+ of 112 and knocked in 117 runs with 28 homers. He actually had an MVP vote that season! Then he regressed in 2006 to .249/.295/.404 and collapsed in 2007 to .252/.331/.357, hitting only one home run in 115 ABs and earning the dubious achievement of being bad enough to be released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. If there's anything encouraging here, it's that he moved to the NL in the second half with the Reds and hit .298/.382/.491 in 57 ABs. That was enough to earn him an invite to the Marlins camp and the trade of Miguel Cabrera means the 3B job might be his for the taking. His primary competition figures to be ex-Angels prospect Dallas McPherson, a guy who's always had potential but has recently been plagued by back problems. McPherson hit 40 minor league home runs in 2004 as a 23 year-old and then fell off the face of the earth. Either of these guys could wind up at 3rd with a strong spring, but I give the edge to Cantu based on health and a strong second half, though moving from the GABP to Dolphin's Stadium won't help his power much.





Houston Astros: Victor Diaz, OF




Diaz is a former Mets prospect who somewhat revived his career by hitting 9 home runs and slugging .538 in 104 ABs with the Rangers last season. He's 26, always had power (even if his plate approach is questionable), and most importantly, winds up in camp with a team that figures to be just shy of awful. It's a perfect storm of opportunity for Diaz. The Astros figure to have only two outfield spots locked up also, with Carlos Lee in left and Hunter Pence presumably in center. However, Darrin Erstad never dies. Though he's been atrocious for a number of years, there's a good chance he shows up and grits his way into a starting spot in center, pushing Pence to right and shoving Diaz out of the mix. Here's hoping saner minds prevail, Erstad is kicked to the curb or given a backup job, and a player with at least a modicum of upside gets a shot.





Kansas City Royals: Brandon Duckworth, SP/RP




There's a battle going on between three mediocre relievers in KC. To be honest, KC's 40-man roster is already filled with guys that should be able to win spots out of spring training, and their glut of outfielders and position-deprived guys make the odds of any non-pitcher making the cut even longer. So that leaves Brandon Duckworth, Chin Hui Tsao, and Roman Colon as the only three guys who appear to stand a chance of wearing the Royal blue this year (but Hideo Nomo is in camp!). Tsao used to be a potential power arm, but surgery seems to have diminished his velocity because he was down to a pedestrian 5.84 K/9 in LA last year. The Royals picked up Colon from Detroit last year after a confrontation with a teammate in AAA made him unwelcome there. He's an old Dayton Moore favorite from his days in Atlanta so he stands a chance. But in Duckworth, the Royals have a pitcher with whom they are familiar that can start in a pinch and soak up some mop-up innings. If it's anybody, it's him.





Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Nick Adenhart, SP




Despite what at first glance are pretty underwhelming minor league statistics, Adenhart is a consensus top prospect in the Angels organization. This isn't a team that appears to have a lot of openings, with one of the league's deepest bullpens and, in Sarge Jr., a $10 million bench player following the Torii Hunter signing. But the Kelvim Escobar injury potentially opens up a rotation spot and if Adenhart impresses he could wind up with it. He tossed 153 innings at AA last season so the workload wouldn't be a problem if he's handled properly. More likely a guy like Joe Saunders or Dustin Moseley is tasked with filling in for Escobar while Adenhart is allowed to head to AAA for some experience at a higher level.





Los Angeles Dodgers: Tanyon Sturtze, RP




Sturtze was seldom healthy in the Atlanta system last year, and when he was, he was terrible. The Dodgers are another club with enough guys on their 40-man to fill all their spots barring injury, but if any combination of player-manager could defy logic and run counter to rational thought, it's Torre-Sturtze. Yankee fans will remember Clueless Joe's man-crush on Sturtze in 2004 and 2005, and his heavy usage under Torre probably had something to do with the surgery he underwent in 2006. Mike Myers, another Torre favorite, is also in camp, but the Dodgers seem to have a wealth of left-handed bullpen options in Eric Stults, Hong Chi Kuo, and Joe Beimel. But imagine a Proctor-Sturtze-Myers bullpen - every Joe Torre's wet dream and every Dodger fan's worst nightmare.





Milwaukee Brewers: Abraham Nunez, IF




I would have thought the Brewers would have invited some more relievers to camp - theirs is a pretty uninspiring list, the most notable name being Scott Cassidy, who pitched well for San Diego in 2006 before posting a 6.53 ERA in 40 minor league games last season. So the guy with the best shot of making the club could be Abraham Nunez, coming off two terrible years with the bat in Philadelphia, one of the majors best hitting parks. If he's kept, it'll be based on his glove's reputation and the fact that with Braun in the OF, Bill Hall moves to 3rd - making a late inning defensive caddy not such a bad idea.





Minnesota Twins: Kevin Mulvey, SP




Acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade, scouts are mixed on Mulvey. He's known more for having a good feel for pitching than for having overpowering stuff, as his 6.53 K/9 in AA last year will attest to. The Twins seem like they already have a few guys like him in Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. But the Santana trade, the Garza trade, and Carlos Silva's departure to Seattle make the Minnesota rotation an open competition after Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. If the Twins like enough of what they see from Mulvey, he could wind up with one of the final three spots, though it's more likely that another Mets acquisition, Philip Humber, joins the rotation along with Slowey and Baker.





New York Mets: Jose Valentin, IF




Valentin revived his career with the Mets with a solid season in 2006, solidifying 2B for the team by hitting .281/.330/.490 for an OPS+ of 109. Injury limited him in 2007 and the Mets have invited him to camp in 2008, though Luis Castillo and his misguided long term contract have the starting job locked up. Even at 38, Valentin could still be capable of providing some lefty pop off the bench and filling in at 2B when Castillo's knees finally give out. Fernando Tatis could get a look here as well if he can play 1B; if last year is any indication, and I think it is, Carlos Delgado could probably use a right handed caddy. It is worth noting that Tatis has played all of 5 games at 1B in his entire professional career, however.





New York Yankees: Morgan Ensberg, 3B/1B?




Ensberg's a tough nut to crack; while he's just 2 years removed from 36 homers and a 144 OPS+, his past couple of seasons have been disappointing to say the least and he's already 32. But Ensberg's plate approach fits in perfectly with the Yankees philosophy. Even in 2006, when he hit just .235, he managed a .396 OBP by drawing 101 BB against 96 K in just 127 games. This allowed him to post an OPS+ of 120 despite what at first glance was an awful season. He's also right handed and could help balance a very lefty-leaning lineup. But you just can't ignore last season, where he "hit" .230/.320/.404 in Houston and San Diego. IF Ensberg shows something in the spring, and WHEN Shelley Duncan is exposed, we could see Ensberg at first if he can handle the move. My guess, however, is that the Yankees stick with the homegrown guy and we see a Duncan/Giambi platoon that could set a new low bar for first base defense.





Oakland Athletics: Gio Gonzalez, SP




The A's acquired the left-handed Gonzalez from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade. Over 4 minor league seasons, Gonzalez has fanned 577 in 492.1 IP. Those impressive numbers, however, don't tell the whole story. At 5'11'', 185 he's a bit undersized, has some control issues, and his makeup and endurance have been called into question by a few scouts. He also relies more on off-speed stuff to put batters away, the kind of trick that works in the minors but doesn't always transition to the majors (Yusmeiro Petit anyone?) But the A's are already short of starting pitching candidates and this is before considering they might trade Joe Blanton. The A's rotation figures to be ugly this year, particularly if Justin Duchscherer can't stay healthy or can't handle the transition to starting. So it's not exactly going out on a limb to predict that Gonzalez could open the season in the A's rotation. His 150 innings in AA would put him on pace to be able to toss 170-180 in the bigs.





The final ten teams will be analyzed next time.

Team Chemistry: Fact or Fiction?

I recently got into a discussion with someone in a newsgroup regarding team chemistry.

It all started when I sent out a message to some of the more active Usenet baseball newsgroups about this site.  Not a heck of a lot of people are reading it so I figured I might as well go out and promote it a little.

One person was kind enough to click the link but immediately took offense to my bio, which states that I believe team chemistry is a myth.  That’s not a joke; I really do think it’s a myth.  This particular poster said that I didn’t know what I was talking about and that the Blue Jays pre-Joe Carter and Roberto Alomar and post Carter/Alomar were proof of chemistry.

Proof of chemistry?  The Holy Grail of baseball lore?  I had to investigate.

I quickly went over to baseballreference.com and looked up the early 1990’s Blue Jays, hoping to see team chemistry jump out at me.  I dug and dug and dug, and decided that the only way to figure out if the Blue Jays had truly used team chemistry to overhaul their roster and make themselves better was to compare the team before the trade for Carter and Alomar in 1990 to the World Series team in 1992.

Here’s what I found:

Of the 29 main contributors to the 1990 “bad chemistry” team, defining a main contributor as at least 70 at bats or eight appearances as a pitcher, 19 of those players returned for the 1991 season, for a 34% roster turnover.

That’s a lot but not to bad.

The 1990 team scored 767 runs and allowed 661 for a team ERA of 3.84 and a run differential of 106 which is very good.

The 1991 team scored 684 runs (-83) and allowed 622 (-39) for a team ERA of 3.50 and a run differential of 62 which is less than 1990.

So while the pitching improved, it didn’t makeup for the turnover in offense and actually made the Blue Jays 44 runs worse than before the trade.

Of the 1992 roster, the first of two World Series winners, there were eleven players leftover from the 1990 “bad chemistry” team, for a turnover of 62%, more than half the roster.

The 1992 team scored 780 runs, up 96 from 1991 and 13 from 1990, and allowed 682 runs, down 2 from 1990 and up 60 from 1991, for a team ERA of 3.91, worst of the three years.  The run differential, however, was back up to 98, which is pretty good.

Now, with this complete makeover in roster in the name of team chemistry, one would expect that, with chemistry better, the existing players from 1990 would perform better on the 1992 team.  So let’s break that down.


1990           AVG   OBP   SLG
  
 Greg Myers   .236  .293  .332  
 John Olerud  .265  .364  .430  
 Kelly Gruber .274  .330  .512  
 Manuel Lee   .243  .288  .340  
 Pat Borders  .286  .319  .497  
 total       1.304 1.594 2.111  
       
                  ERA  W   L
 Dave Stieb       2.93 18  6  
 David Wells      3.14 11  6  
 Duane Ward       3.45  2  8  
 Jimmy Key        4.25 13  7  
 Todd Stottlemyre 4.34 13 17  
 Tom Henke        2.17  2  4  
 total           20.28 59 48


1992           AVG   OBP   SLG
 
 Greg Myers   .230  .279  .377  
 John Olerud  .284  .375  .450  
 Kelly Gruber .229  .275  .352  
 Manuel Lee   .263  .343  .316  
 Pat Borders  .242  .290  .385  
 total       1.248 1.562 1.880  
       
                  ERA  W   L    
 Dave Stieb       5.04  4  6  
 David Wells      5.40  7  9  
 Duane Ward       1.95  7  4  
 Jimmy Key        3.53 13 13  
 Todd Stottlemyre 4.50 12 11  
 Tom Henke        2.26  3  2  
 total           22.68 46 45

Difference between 1990 and 1992:

AVG -.056
OBP -.032
SLG -.231

ERA +2.40 (went up)
W –13
L –3 (less losses)

In every statistic except losses, the players who were on the 1990
team performed worse as a group than they did in 1992.  Meyers,
Olerud, Ward, and Key saw their statistics improve, although Meyers
only had 61 at bats and Olerud was 23, finishing his third season at a
young age and priming to break out in 1993.

So while the chemistry may have been better on the team, it didn't
positively impact the players that played on both teams to perform
better in 1992.

Non-roster guys with a chance to stick - Part One

Roster construction is one of my favorite subjects, so I always take great delight in examining each team's non-roster invitees every spring. To paraphrase Major League 2, most of these guys will be bagging groceries in a few weeks, but still, I love the idea of some unheralded and overlooked player putting up a big spring and winning a spot on a team.





I'll be doing this in 3 parts, covering 10 teams each time.





Here is my list of non-roster invitees with the best chance of making an impact on their team during the regular season:






Arizona: Jamie D'antona IF/C



D'antona spent 2007 in Triple-A Tuscon, where, at the age of 25, he hit .308/.362/.495. Adding to his appeal is the fact that he split time between 1B, 3B, and C. Any utility guy who can catch in a pinch is always attractive. While 25 is old for a prospect, last season was his first taste of AAA and he more than held his own. D'antona could fight his way onto the roster particularly if Chad Tracy isn't ready at the beginning of the season after undergoing microfracture surgery.





Atlanta Braves: Matt DeSalvo, SP





DeSalvo yo-yoed between AAA and the Bronx last season with the Yankees, intermittently putting up some pretty good starts and some truly awful ones. He posted an unsightly 18/10 BB/K split in the bigs and he's definitely a guy that needs to hit his spots to be at all successful. He did post a 2.70 ERA at Scranton-Wilkes Barre in 113 IP. His lack of overpowering stuff makes leaving the AL East and moving to the lesser league a necessity at this point. He could approximate what Buddy Carlyle did for the Braves last season. Assuming the Braves will get anything out of Mike Hampton and that octogenarians like Tom Glavine and John Smoltz will continue to stay healthy is asking a lot. Chances are decent that DeSalvo gets a few starts in Atlanta this season and he shouldn't embarrass himself.





Baltimore Orioles: Kameron Mickolio, RP





Mickolio was acquired yesterday by the Orioles in the Erik Bedard trade and was immediately extended an invite to spring training. In two minor league seasons, he's crossed three levels and ended up all the way in AAA Tacoma last season. His combined stats over those two seasons are: 86 IP, 77 H, 29 BB, 81 K...and just 4 HR allowed. He could be a cog in the Orioles bullpen as soon as this season and a strong spring might win him a spot outright. Between Mickolio, Adam Jones, and George Sherrill the O's could have three guys they immediately plug into their major league roster.





Boston Red Sox: Bobby Kielty, OF





Kielty is the obvious choice here, as he finished the season with the Sox and hit a key home run in their Series clinching victory. The only obstacle seems to be Coco Crisp, since Boston would seem reluctant to carry five outfielders and Jacoby Ellsbury is all but assured of winning a roster spot. I'd imagine Boston would work to trade Crisp before Opening Day to open a spot for Kielty, who mashes lefties and plays a decent outfield corner. Then again, we're just a JD Drew injury away from this little problem solving itself.





Chicago Cubs: Andres Blanco, IF





As much as I'd love to see 40 year-old Shingo Takatsu revive his career and win a spot, I'm counting against that happening. The Cubs are a tough team to pick because they seem to have pretty much every roster spot nailed down. I guess, gun to my head, I'll go with Andres Blanco, a former Royals prospect who has never hit a lick, but has a reputation as a slick fielder. The dude has slugged .302 in his minor league career though, so don't hold out much hope. But injuries happen and defensive replacements are sometimes needed...who am I kidding? This roster is pretty much set.





Chicago White Sox: Brad Eldred, 1B/OF (?)





This is a pretty scant list of invitees. For now, let's pick Brad Eldred, though it would take a pretty catastrophic series of events for him to get so much as a sniff of playing time since the Sox are pretty jammed as it is. They have Fields and Crede at 3rd, a glut of outfielders (and Eldred, though he has played there, is no outfielder) and probably 3 or 4 guys that could fill in at 1B if Konerko or Thome went down. Eldred has always had exceptional power (.536 career minor league SLG) if extremely limited contact skills. He's 26 and not getting any younger. Another real long shot.





Cincinnati Reds: Jay Bruce, OF





In Andy Phillips, Johnny Cueto, and even Kent Mercker, the Reds at least a few guys that could conceivably fight their way onto the roster. But Bruce is a tremendous prospect who is ready to hit in the majors yesterday. Bruce shot up 3 levels in 2007, hitting 46 doubles and 25 home runs in the process. He's only 20 and was named Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year. This dude's ready to start and even if he can't hang in CF, he should hit enough to handle an OF corner. Bruce is a strong early candidate for NL Rookie of the Year; he just needs the opportunity.





Cleveland Indians: Jorge Julio, RP





Julio has the type of arm that makes every pitching coach think they can fix him - but none has yet been up to the task. Julio actually had a pretty decent 2007 with Colorado - 3.93 ERA, 50 K in 52.2 IP - and he's always been a strike out guy. The problem is his atrocious command - he's walked 199 in 407 career IP - but he's the type of guy teams always take a flier on as long as he's lighting up the gun. A decent spring and he could wind up with the 6th inning job in Cleveland.





Colorado Rockies: Marcus Giles, 2B





I'd call it a toss-up between Giles and Podsednik, who could run his way into the Rockies outfield mix. But the departure of Kaz Matsui via free agency has made the 2B job in Colorado an open competition between the likes of Giles, Jayson Nix, and Ian Stewart - a 3B by trade who could be moved to accommodate Garrett Atkins. Many people are mixed on whether Stewart - long touted as a top prospect - has the athleticism to make the move to the right side of the infield, and Nix isn't much of a prospect despite a pretty good second stab at AAA last year. Giles could win this competition by default then, and if the thin Colorado air doesn't fix whatever's happened to his swing the past few seasons, then nothing will.





Detroit Tigers: Aquilino Lopez, RP





Matt Mantei will be in camp competing for a bullpen job, hoping he can return to form after missing all of 2007 recovering from surgery. He's always put up huge K numbers (396 K in 322.2 IP career) and was a solid big league closer as recently as 2003, but that was really the last time he pitched effectively at any level. Couple that with the question of whether his velocity is back after last year's injury, and I'd say the 12th man spot is a better bet to go to Lopez, who had a solid season as AAA Toledo's closer last season. He's also 7 years younger than Mantei and has been both healthy and durable bouncing between AAA and the majors for the better part of the past four seasons. He struck out 58 in 53.2 minor league innings last year while walking just 11. A good bet to win a job and give Detroit some decent innings this year.





We'll do 10 more teams next time. 4 days to pitchers and catchers.

McNamee injected Clemens' dog

In yet another startling revelation, Brian McNamee admitted this week
that he injected Roger Clemens dog Kasey with steroids and HGH. The
allegations were revealed during a deposition to Congressional lawyers
for next weeks hearings in which McNamee claims to have also injected
Clemens wife with HGH for an SI photo shoot.

The circumstances around the injection of Kasey, a purebred Schnauzer,
are a little hazy. McNamee claims to have injected the dog in the
preceding months to the 2003 Westminster Dog Show at Clemens request.
Records show that Kasey scored much higher in the Doggy Obstacle
course exhibition, but ranked poorly in physical appearance due to
oversize cranium. Towards the end of the competition, Kasey became
spooked during a park session when McNamee threw a stick towards him,
sending Kasey into a rage and biting Joe Garagiola on the ankle.

A second incident involving HGH was reported in the spring of 2004
after a long day at the park. According to McNamee, Clemens ran the
dog rather hard for three hours, at which point the dog was limping
around the house. Clemens commanded the dog to "man up," then asked
McNamee to administer the injections.

Clemens denied these allegations through his lawyers, but would not
comment on the physical evidence provided by McNamee: veterinary
hypodermic needles and a ziplock sandwich bag filled with dog feces.
McNamee claims the feces were gathered by him while walking Kasey
before the 2003 dog show and that a DNA test of the dog and feces will
prove a match. He would not reveal where he had stored a bag of shit
for the last five years.

McNamee, packrat

The Daily News is reporting that Brian McNamee has syringes and gauze
pads used by Roger Clemens around 2000 and 2001 that contain steroid
residue and possible DNA evidence.

Huh?

Seven year old syringes? Look, this isn't CSI. I can't tell you the
halflife of steroids as it lives in plastic or gauze. But the fact
that McNamee has this supposed evidence raises a lot more questions
about Clemens, but also McNamee's character.

McNamee is a former New York City police officer whose records and
circumstances regarding his termination remain sealed. He knows how
the legal system works. He understands the priorities of a district
attorney, to use the little fish to get the big fish. Its certainly
possible that McNamee saved such evidence for fear of his own
prosecution, but its also possible he saved it for blackmail. Keeping
this evidence for seven years is an act of self preservation. Its not
about justice or doing the right thing. Its about protecting one's
own hyde, the extent to which we may never know.

The reports say that this evidence is just now being turned over to
federal authorities, which doesn't make a heck of a lot of sense.
This man has been testifying to Feds for awhile now. Why has he been
sitting in his evidence?

I would have a hard time believing that McNamee would resort to
manufacturing evidence at this point, especially if his feelings for
Clemens are as genuine as he says. The burden of proof is on Clemens
now, not McNamee, so the motivation seems unecessary. But one has to
question the validity of presenting evidence this old that could
easily be tampered with. And, as someone in the Yankees newsgroup
pointed out, Clemens admitted to B-12 shots. Is it possible McNamee
is presenting these as evidence, claiming they were used for steroids?

It seems unlikely. McNamee's professional life is over now regardless
of what happens in front of Congress. He has nothing left to prove.
Chances are, Andy Pettitte will coroborate part of his story and
Clemens will have some explaining to do.