Soria Should Be Starting

The intro to Buster Olney's blog today featured a story about Joakim Soria, the Royals young closer, who many are likening to a young Mariano Rivera. I watch the Royals as much as I possibly can - not because I'm a masochist, but because I have tons of family in Kansas City who are die-hards and I like to be able to keep up with them when they talk. I remember back to last spring, thinking that the Royals potentially had scored a coup when they selected Soria in the Rule V draft. Then, a few days later, he pitched a perfect game in Mexican winter ball, and Kevin Towers was presumably rather angry at himself. And so far, so good - Soria posted a 189 ERA+ in 69 high-leverage innings last year, and he looked absolutely filthy this week, striking out 10 batters in 5 innings and saving 3 games.


So the Mo comparisons are apt in that respect - both pitchers have devastating stuff. And they both throw cut fastballs. Yet Soria is still a month shy of his 24th birthday, and by all accounts has at least 3 plus pitches - the aforementioned cutter, a wicked change with terrific arm-side tail, and a big 12-to-6 yakker. He throws all these pitches in the strike zone and as recently as one year ago, had the stamina to hold his stuff into the 9th inning and finish off a perfect game. So, with all due respect, what in the world is this guy doing pitching one inning a night, and only when the Royals have the lead (which, in the course of recent events, has been rare)?


As a Yankees fan (don't hold it against me), I understand the value of a dominant closer as well as anyone. But what made Rivera such an ideal candidate for a move from the rotation to the bullpen - namely that he has only one true plus pitch - is what makes Soria's emergence as a closer rather frustrating. Closers should always be a luxury item for small-market teams, and they should be traded once their value is at its peak as a surefire way of restocking a farm system. Tampa Bay did this a couple of years ago with Danys Baez, trading him to the Dodgers for Edwin Jackson. Granted, Jackson hasn't panned out, but he remains a young starter with electric stuff, and he was acquired for a relief pitcher who has been either hurt or ineffective ever since. Last year, the Pirates turned Mike Gonzalez into Adam LaRoche. Even more recently, Arizona traded Jose Valverde, fresh off a season in which he saved 47 games and received an MVP vote an finished 6th in the Cy Young voting, for 3 players. This is a guy who was one year removed from an ERA of 5.84. Now, one good year and 47 saves later, he's worth three players.


It's always been my belief that closers - merely reasonably effective closers, not studs like Rivera, Nathan, or Papelbon - more or less grow on trees. They might be failed starters, they might be setup men who need only the opportunity, they might be 38 year-old Japanese men with funky deliveries, they might even be homophobic pot-bellied men with stupid facial hair. The point is, if you look hard enough, you can usually find one. What is increasingly difficult to find, however, is a good starting pitcher, and that's exactly what Joakim Soria has a great chance to be. Joe Nathan is closing because he couldn't hack it as a starter; we don't know this for sure about Joakim Soria. He deserves every chance to prove this to the Royals before he's branded closer of the present. The Indians, more than any recent team I can recall, proved last year that you don't need a dominant, lights-out guy in the 9th inning to win a division, and their failing at reaching the World Series didn't have anything to do with Borowski, as many predicted it would. Making the decision to start Joakim Soria over a John Bale or a Brett Tomko every 5th day would figure to be a massive improvement.


And yes, you could replace any instances of "Joakim Soria" with "Joba Chamberlain" and "Royals" with "Yankees" and you've pretty much have my take on that one as well.


Other cool stuff this week: Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez combined to strike out 18 over 12 2/3 IP for the Reds. The baseball gods do have a sense of humor, because Dusty Baker might be the only manager in baseball who could mess this up...Josh Hamilton golfed a JJ Putz fastball off his shoetops into the right field stands in Seattle to give Texas a win on Tuesday. I know spring statistics are generally meaningless, but Hamilton was unreal all of March and he's taken it with him into April. He's become someone whose every at-bat is unmissable...The Tigers got trounced 13-2 on Sunday to drop to 0-6, and Miguel Cabrera was booed as he bounced into his second double play of the evening. The honeymoon ended pretty quick there. Steve Phillips called the Tigers offense "the best in the history of baseball" on Baseball Tonight, and that was before Opening Day even happened. I will enjoy this week of looking like a genius.