This round features several major league veterans looking to hang on for another year, including the exciting reunion of Joe Torre and one of his most famously abused pitchers!
Florida Marlins: Jorge Cantu, IF
It was only 2005 when Cantu posted an OPS+ of 112 and knocked in 117 runs with 28 homers. He actually had an MVP vote that season! Then he regressed in 2006 to .249/.295/.404 and collapsed in 2007 to .252/.331/.357, hitting only one home run in 115 ABs and earning the dubious achievement of being bad enough to be released by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. If there's anything encouraging here, it's that he moved to the NL in the second half with the Reds and hit .298/.382/.491 in 57 ABs. That was enough to earn him an invite to the Marlins camp and the trade of Miguel Cabrera means the 3B job might be his for the taking. His primary competition figures to be ex-Angels prospect Dallas McPherson, a guy who's always had potential but has recently been plagued by back problems. McPherson hit 40 minor league home runs in 2004 as a 23 year-old and then fell off the face of the earth. Either of these guys could wind up at 3rd with a strong spring, but I give the edge to Cantu based on health and a strong second half, though moving from the GABP to Dolphin's Stadium won't help his power much.
Houston Astros: Victor Diaz, OF
Diaz is a former Mets prospect who somewhat revived his career by hitting 9 home runs and slugging .538 in 104 ABs with the Rangers last season. He's 26, always had power (even if his plate approach is questionable), and most importantly, winds up in camp with a team that figures to be just shy of awful. It's a perfect storm of opportunity for Diaz. The Astros figure to have only two outfield spots locked up also, with Carlos Lee in left and Hunter Pence presumably in center. However, Darrin Erstad never dies. Though he's been atrocious for a number of years, there's a good chance he shows up and grits his way into a starting spot in center, pushing Pence to right and shoving Diaz out of the mix. Here's hoping saner minds prevail, Erstad is kicked to the curb or given a backup job, and a player with at least a modicum of upside gets a shot.
Kansas City Royals: Brandon Duckworth, SP/RP
There's a battle going on between three mediocre relievers in KC. To be honest, KC's 40-man roster is already filled with guys that should be able to win spots out of spring training, and their glut of outfielders and position-deprived guys make the odds of any non-pitcher making the cut even longer. So that leaves Brandon Duckworth, Chin Hui Tsao, and Roman Colon as the only three guys who appear to stand a chance of wearing the Royal blue this year (but Hideo Nomo is in camp!). Tsao used to be a potential power arm, but surgery seems to have diminished his velocity because he was down to a pedestrian 5.84 K/9 in LA last year. The Royals picked up Colon from Detroit last year after a confrontation with a teammate in AAA made him unwelcome there. He's an old Dayton Moore favorite from his days in Atlanta so he stands a chance. But in Duckworth, the Royals have a pitcher with whom they are familiar that can start in a pinch and soak up some mop-up innings. If it's anybody, it's him.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Nick Adenhart, SP
Despite what at first glance are pretty underwhelming minor league statistics, Adenhart is a consensus top prospect in the Angels organization. This isn't a team that appears to have a lot of openings, with one of the league's deepest bullpens and, in Sarge Jr., a $10 million bench player following the Torii Hunter signing. But the Kelvim Escobar injury potentially opens up a rotation spot and if Adenhart impresses he could wind up with it. He tossed 153 innings at AA last season so the workload wouldn't be a problem if he's handled properly. More likely a guy like Joe Saunders or Dustin Moseley is tasked with filling in for Escobar while Adenhart is allowed to head to AAA for some experience at a higher level.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Tanyon Sturtze, RP
Sturtze was seldom healthy in the Atlanta system last year, and when he was, he was terrible. The Dodgers are another club with enough guys on their 40-man to fill all their spots barring injury, but if any combination of player-manager could defy logic and run counter to rational thought, it's Torre-Sturtze. Yankee fans will remember Clueless Joe's man-crush on Sturtze in 2004 and 2005, and his heavy usage under Torre probably had something to do with the surgery he underwent in 2006. Mike Myers, another Torre favorite, is also in camp, but the Dodgers seem to have a wealth of left-handed bullpen options in Eric Stults, Hong Chi Kuo, and Joe Beimel. But imagine a Proctor-Sturtze-Myers bullpen - every Joe Torre's wet dream and every Dodger fan's worst nightmare.
Milwaukee Brewers: Abraham Nunez, IF
I would have thought the Brewers would have invited some more relievers to camp - theirs is a pretty uninspiring list, the most notable name being Scott Cassidy, who pitched well for San Diego in 2006 before posting a 6.53 ERA in 40 minor league games last season. So the guy with the best shot of making the club could be Abraham Nunez, coming off two terrible years with the bat in Philadelphia, one of the majors best hitting parks. If he's kept, it'll be based on his glove's reputation and the fact that with Braun in the OF, Bill Hall moves to 3rd - making a late inning defensive caddy not such a bad idea.
Minnesota Twins: Kevin Mulvey, SP
Acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade, scouts are mixed on Mulvey. He's known more for having a good feel for pitching than for having overpowering stuff, as his 6.53 K/9 in AA last year will attest to. The Twins seem like they already have a few guys like him in Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey. But the Santana trade, the Garza trade, and Carlos Silva's departure to Seattle make the Minnesota rotation an open competition after Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser. If the Twins like enough of what they see from Mulvey, he could wind up with one of the final three spots, though it's more likely that another Mets acquisition, Philip Humber, joins the rotation along with Slowey and Baker.
New York Mets: Jose Valentin, IF
Valentin revived his career with the Mets with a solid season in 2006, solidifying 2B for the team by hitting .281/.330/.490 for an OPS+ of 109. Injury limited him in 2007 and the Mets have invited him to camp in 2008, though Luis Castillo and his misguided long term contract have the starting job locked up. Even at 38, Valentin could still be capable of providing some lefty pop off the bench and filling in at 2B when Castillo's knees finally give out. Fernando Tatis could get a look here as well if he can play 1B; if last year is any indication, and I think it is, Carlos Delgado could probably use a right handed caddy. It is worth noting that Tatis has played all of 5 games at 1B in his entire professional career, however.
New York Yankees: Morgan Ensberg, 3B/1B?
Ensberg's a tough nut to crack; while he's just 2 years removed from 36 homers and a 144 OPS+, his past couple of seasons have been disappointing to say the least and he's already 32. But Ensberg's plate approach fits in perfectly with the Yankees philosophy. Even in 2006, when he hit just .235, he managed a .396 OBP by drawing 101 BB against 96 K in just 127 games. This allowed him to post an OPS+ of 120 despite what at first glance was an awful season. He's also right handed and could help balance a very lefty-leaning lineup. But you just can't ignore last season, where he "hit" .230/.320/.404 in Houston and San Diego. IF Ensberg shows something in the spring, and WHEN Shelley Duncan is exposed, we could see Ensberg at first if he can handle the move. My guess, however, is that the Yankees stick with the homegrown guy and we see a Duncan/Giambi platoon that could set a new low bar for first base defense.
Oakland Athletics: Gio Gonzalez, SP
The A's acquired the left-handed Gonzalez from the White Sox in the Nick Swisher trade. Over 4 minor league seasons, Gonzalez has fanned 577 in 492.1 IP. Those impressive numbers, however, don't tell the whole story. At 5'11'', 185 he's a bit undersized, has some control issues, and his makeup and endurance have been called into question by a few scouts. He also relies more on off-speed stuff to put batters away, the kind of trick that works in the minors but doesn't always transition to the majors (Yusmeiro Petit anyone?) But the A's are already short of starting pitching candidates and this is before considering they might trade Joe Blanton. The A's rotation figures to be ugly this year, particularly if Justin Duchscherer can't stay healthy or can't handle the transition to starting. So it's not exactly going out on a limb to predict that Gonzalez could open the season in the A's rotation. His 150 innings in AA would put him on pace to be able to toss 170-180 in the bigs.
The final ten teams will be analyzed next time.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
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