This Rivalry Stinks

I'm thirty-four years old. That means a couple of things.

1 - I have a hard time staying awake past midnight.

2 - Life is less about fun and more about responsibility.

3 - I can no longer act like a kid unless-

4 - It's with my kids, and-

5 - I've been a Yankee fan for roughly thirty years.

Thirty years seems like a long time, but it's not. There's people who have been Yankee fans longer. They can wax poetic about Old Yankee Stadium, Mantle vs Mays vs the Duke, beating the Dodgers, DiMaggio's streak, when Scooter was an actual player and not a broadcaster. I can't compete with any of that.

The only thing I have in common with my older fellow Yankee fans is our collective hatred of the Red Sox. Sure, we all admire the numbers of retired Yankee greats and not-so-greats that adorns the left field wall at Yankee Stadium, a collection of some of the greatest names in baseball and some guys non-New Yorkers could give a rat's ass about. But we don't share in the same memories. Leyritz's homer in game four? How about Don Larsen's perfect game in the World Series? Buzz off, rookie...

We all hate the same uniform, though; a uniform that hasn't changed much over the last one hundred years, that's played in a home ballpark that opened conspicuously close to the maiden voyage of the Titanic and soon embarked on a title-less streak that lasted eighty-six years. We can't relate to the same players or even the same style game, but we can relate to the shared enemy: the Boston Red Sox.

So it saddens me to discover after DiMaggio and Williams, Fisk and Munson, Pedro and Zimmer, that the competitive fire, the bottomless pit of bile that resided in the stomachs of each of our fan-bases, has basically dried up.

The games don't mean what they used to. Yankee Stadium used to crackle with energy every time the Yankees and Red Sox played. "Boston Sucks!" chants were a dime a dozen, 1918 signs scattered generously throughout the stands.

Not anymore. Now, the players are friendly towards each other, cordial even. Watch anytime Derek Jeter or David Ortiz get on base. They practically hug it out with the infielder next to them, chatting about God knows what and where they're going to dinner that night. ARod was hit by a pitch square in the back Wednesday night. It wasn't intentional but that shouldn't matter. ARod makes $250 million. Thirty years ago, a Red Sox player would have found themselves on their backs the next inning.

Not in the lovefest that is now the Yankees - Red Sox "rivalry."

The whole dynamic between the Yankees and Red Sox has been ruined, mostly because the Red Sox took it upon themselves to win a few World Championships. It was a purely selfish act that did nothing for baseball except ruin the best rivalry in sports.

It was turning into an annual ritual. The Yankees would beat out the Red Sox for the division. They'd both make it into the playoffs due to the Wild Card and meet in the ALCS, where the Yankees would proceed to crush Red Sox Nations' dreams of ever attaining a world championship, whether it be in six games or the bottom of the eleventh inning when a knuckleballer gives up a homer to a mediocre infielder.

This little arrangement seemed to be working out for everyone. Boston was able to fester under it's hatred of New York for being a bigger city and having better sports teams. New Englanders reveled in their disgust, wearing their angst and perennial disappointment like a badge of honor. Globe and Herald newspaper writers constantly reminded the masses that everything that could go wrong for a Boston team would, because Bostonians held the fatalistic belief that they were doomed to never win a championship again.

And then the 2004 playoffs happened.

Everything is different now. The Red Sox have won two World Series in four years. The Celtics are a force to be reckoned with while the Knicks are a punchline. New Englanders can now gloat where before they could only spew insults about how much better Nomar was than Jeter. The dynamic has changed. Boston has beaten New York. For now, Boston is on top.

At least the Patriots didn't go 19 - 0...

A Few Thoughts On Roy Oswalt

I'm not a Houston Astros fan, but I can't help but notice how badly Roy Oswalt has struggled in his three starts this season. The reason is because I own him on a couple of fantasy teams. I watched his nightmarish start against the Marlins last week through my fingers, as he served up 4 home runs for the first time in his major league career over just 4 innings. When a pitcher as consistent as Roy Oswalt gives up 4 home runs in 4 innings, and 2 of the guys going deep are Mike Rabelo and Jorge Cantu, it's natural to assume that something might be wrong physically. Yet looking more closely at the pitches he's thrown tells a different and, I think, less troubling story.

Oswalt is a little out of whack, certainly. I can only speculate whether there's something wrong with him mechanically because I'm not an expert, or even an amateur, in breaking down pitchers' deliveries. Before we delve into what's different about Oswalt this year, let's recap his outings so far and how they compare to his career averages.


- Oswalt allowed 4 home runs in his last start against the Marlins, something he has never done in his career. He has given up as many as 3 just twice, once in 2003 and again in 2006. Interestingly, in both games, all three were solo home runs and were the only runs he allowed. He won both games.

- Oswalt has never allowed more than 18 home runs in a single season while averaging 222.1 innings a year. He has allowed 5 home runs in 16 IP this season.

- He didn't allow his 5th home run until his 8th start last season.

- He has given up 30 hits in 16 IP this season, spanning 3 starts. He allowed exactly 30 hits over his first 5 starts last season, spanning 35 innings.

- Oswalt didn't lose his third game until May 22nd last year, his 11th start. This year, 3 starts in and he's 0-3.

- Yet last year after 3 starts, Oswalt's K/BB was just 12/8, over 21.2 IP. This year, his K/BB is 12/2 over 16 IP.


It's that last bit of information that I think is most telling. Oswalt is in the strike zone. A lot. All up in the strike zone. He has a K:BB ratio of 6:1. This trumps his career K:BB of 3.63:1. That's awesome. You would typically expect a pitcher whose control improves that much to see his baseline statistics improve accordingly. That isn't the case here. Oswalt's career WHIP is an excellent 1.21; this year, he's sporting a WHIP of 2.00. So whatever gains Oswalt has temporarily made in terms of control, he's lost in the 30 hits he's allowed. Oswalt had a career high WHIP of 1.32, has seen his K/9 drop for a few years, and he's officially on the wrong side of 30, so there's evidence he could be in slight decline. But what we're seeing this year is nothing short of horrendous. Still, I don't expect it to last.

First, I have to thank this lovely man named Josh Kalk, who has this blog. His PitchFX plots are invaluable when doing this kind of research. Now, on to the goods - here are the percentages of pitches thrown by Oswalt.

Here are the links to Oswalt's 2007 player card and his 2008 card:

Let's compare his 2007 season through his 2008 season thus far:


2008: 70.09% Fastballs

13.08 Curveballs

14.02 Sliders

.93 Splitters

1.87 Cutters


2007: 65.53 Fastballs

17.09 Curveballs

13.09 Sliders

4.33 Changeups


What immediately jumps out is that Oswalt no longer features a changeup, or least hasn't yet featured a changeup. He has thrown 1 splitter and 2 cutters, however. What is preventing him from throwing his change? He threw only 47 of them last year, so it's primarily a show me pitch, but what has made him scrap it completely in favor of two pitches he's never featured? You can understand an unsuccessful guy tinkering with new pitches in an attempt to add a couple of years to his career, but we're talking about arguably one of the 3 most effective starting pitchers of the last 7 years. I don't think the absence of a changeup is causing Oswalt's issues, because again, he has never primarily featured it and it wasn't a plus pitch. I think it's just interesting to take note that a perennial Cy Young candidate finds it necessary to mess with his arsenal.

Already through 3 starts, Oswalt has worked himself into 3 ball counts 8 times, about 2.66 times per start. In 32 starts in 2007, he was in 41 3 ball counts, about 1.28 times per start. Which brings us to a quick conclusion: he's getting into more 3 ball counts, being forced to throw his fastball, and hitters are sitting on it. Major league hitters are fastball hitters. Even guys like Mike Rabelo, a relatively unproven player, can sit on one if they know or even suspect it's coming, and hit it a long way.

He's worked himself into only 4 0-2 counts in three starts. In 2-2 counts he's throwing his fastball 76.92% of the time, up from 62.5 last year. This is telling me he's afraid of working himself into 3-2 counts. On the 6 occasions he has worked 3-2 counts, he's thrown his fastball 6 times. He's also been in 2 3-1 counts and thrown his fastball on both occasions. This helps explain his 6:1 KK/BB ratio because he's been a 1 pitch pitcher in 3 ball counts.

I admit to not having seen Oswalt pitch more than a dozen times in my life because of where I live, but what I have always seen from him is a devastating spike curveball. That's his out pitch. So why isn't he throwing it more when he works himself into 2 strike counts? Let's look at the curveballs that he has thrown so far this year. He's throwing them nearly 5 MPH slower than in 2007 and there is less vertical and lateral movement on them. Meanwhile, both his fastball and slider are moving more than they did last year. So he must be having command issues. But there's nothing fundamentally wrong with his fastball, as he's shown no significant loss in velocity, especially for April.

I think Oswalt is just trying to find his curveball right now. He has very good velocity and good control but seemingly very little command of any of his pitches - meaning they are in the strike zone, just not in the area of the strike zone that Oswalt intends them to be. Perhaps if he was spotting his fastball better or throwing his slider more, it would make up for the lack of depth and velocity in his curveball, but he's unable to do either of those right now. I'm not a medical professional but the fact that Oswalt's fastball velocity remains relatively unchanged doesn't raise any red flags for me. This could simply be a matter of a great pitcher struggling with the feel for his best pitch. I suspect it's mechanical but I'll leave that to this guy to decide.

Soria Should Be Starting

The intro to Buster Olney's blog today featured a story about Joakim Soria, the Royals young closer, who many are likening to a young Mariano Rivera. I watch the Royals as much as I possibly can - not because I'm a masochist, but because I have tons of family in Kansas City who are die-hards and I like to be able to keep up with them when they talk. I remember back to last spring, thinking that the Royals potentially had scored a coup when they selected Soria in the Rule V draft. Then, a few days later, he pitched a perfect game in Mexican winter ball, and Kevin Towers was presumably rather angry at himself. And so far, so good - Soria posted a 189 ERA+ in 69 high-leverage innings last year, and he looked absolutely filthy this week, striking out 10 batters in 5 innings and saving 3 games.

So the Mo comparisons are apt in that respect - both pitchers have devastating stuff. And they both throw cut fastballs. Yet Soria is still a month shy of his 24th birthday, and by all accounts has at least 3 plus pitches - the aforementioned cutter, a wicked change with terrific arm-side tail, and a big 12-to-6 yakker. He throws all these pitches in the strike zone and as recently as one year ago, had the stamina to hold his stuff into the 9th inning and finish off a perfect game. So, with all due respect, what in the world is this guy doing pitching one inning a night, and only when the Royals have the lead (which, in the course of recent events, has been rare)?

As a Yankees fan (don't hold it against me), I understand the value of a dominant closer as well as anyone. But what made Rivera such an ideal candidate for a move from the rotation to the bullpen - namely that he has only one true plus pitch - is what makes Soria's emergence as a closer rather frustrating. Closers should always be a luxury item for small-market teams, and they should be traded once their value is at its peak as a surefire way of restocking a farm system. Tampa Bay did this a couple of years ago with Danys Baez, trading him to the Dodgers for Edwin Jackson. Granted, Jackson hasn't panned out, but he remains a young starter with electric stuff, and he was acquired for a relief pitcher who has been either hurt or ineffective ever since. Last year, the Pirates turned Mike Gonzalez into Adam LaRoche. Even more recently, Arizona traded Jose Valverde, fresh off a season in which he saved 47 games and received an MVP vote an finished 6th in the Cy Young voting, for 3 players. This is a guy who was one year removed from an ERA of 5.84. Now, one good year and 47 saves later, he's worth three players.

It's always been my belief that closers - merely reasonably effective closers, not studs like Rivera, Nathan, or Papelbon - more or less grow on trees. They might be failed starters, they might be setup men who need only the opportunity, they might be 38 year-old Japanese men with funky deliveries, they might even be homophobic pot-bellied men with stupid facial hair. The point is, if you look hard enough, you can usually find one. What is increasingly difficult to find, however, is a good starting pitcher, and that's exactly what Joakim Soria has a great chance to be. Joe Nathan is closing because he couldn't hack it as a starter; we don't know this for sure about Joakim Soria. He deserves every chance to prove this to the Royals before he's branded closer of the present. The Indians, more than any recent team I can recall, proved last year that you don't need a dominant, lights-out guy in the 9th inning to win a division, and their failing at reaching the World Series didn't have anything to do with Borowski, as many predicted it would. Making the decision to start Joakim Soria over a John Bale or a Brett Tomko every 5th day would figure to be a massive improvement.

And yes, you could replace any instances of "Joakim Soria" with "Joba Chamberlain" and "Royals" with "Yankees" and you've pretty much have my take on that one as well.

Other cool stuff this week: Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez combined to strike out 18 over 12 2/3 IP for the Reds. The baseball gods do have a sense of humor, because Dusty Baker might be the only manager in baseball who could mess this up...Josh Hamilton golfed a JJ Putz fastball off his shoetops into the right field stands in Seattle to give Texas a win on Tuesday. I know spring statistics are generally meaningless, but Hamilton was unreal all of March and he's taken it with him into April. He's become someone whose every at-bat is unmissable...The Tigers got trounced 13-2 on Sunday to drop to 0-6, and Miguel Cabrera was booed as he bounced into his second double play of the evening. The honeymoon ended pretty quick there. Steve Phillips called the Tigers offense "the best in the history of baseball" on Baseball Tonight, and that was before Opening Day even happened. I will enjoy this week of looking like a genius.

Girardi and the Bench

Three games in for the Yankees and I think Joe Girardi deserves good marks. There hasn't been a hell of a lot to judge him on, but he hasn't screwed anything up yet either.

I do take issue with two things:

1 - I think he left Moose in for a batter too long on Wednesday. This whole notion that a starting pitcher has the right to try and finish an inning is a bit ludicrous. Moose doesn't have an outpitch and was getting himself into trouble the entire game. A few DPs saved his arse from having a very rough outing. If you're willing to bring in Hawkins, a right hander as well, to get one out, bring him in for two. You're pretty much guaranteed he's got more stuff than Moose.

2 - Giambi facing a lefty in the seventh inning? Really?

I don't know if this is a comment on the need for Giambi's offense (currently in an O-for) or a comment of the lack of defense off the bench, but either way, Giambi will be on the DL by May at this rate. Girardi needs to get the bench involved, not only to get them playing but to avoid a minor mutiny. You can't play guys just to make them happy, but you also can't completely avoid your bench for three days either.

Battling Conventional Wisdom: Why the Tigers Aren't The Team to Beat in the AL Central

Every year, each division seems to have a trendy pick. A few offseason additions can suddenly make last year's 88 win-team this year's World Series favorite. In 2005, the Mets added Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez and seemed to have positioned themselves as a team to beat. They ended up with 83 wins, good for 3rd in the NL East.

In 2006, there was a buzz around the Red Sox in the AL East following the additions of Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell from the Florida firesale. While Lowell produced, Beckett responded with an ERA+ of 95 and the Sox finished 3rd in the AL East, well shy of the playoffs.

Just last year, the Brewers stormed out of the gate looking like the NL's answer to the previous year's Tigers, who shocked a lot of people by winning their division and making a deep playoff run. Milwaukee ended up an 83 win team, 2 games behind the Cubs.

The point being, lots of teams look great on paper in March and wind up on the couch in October. Is there a team that fits this bill for 2008? I humbly submit that the Detroit Tigers just might.

Let's recap the Tigers' offseason. First, they traded Jair Jurrjens to Atlanta for Edgar Renteria, allowing them to shift Carlos Guillen to 1B, making them offensively and defensively better at both positions. Two weeks later, they acquired Jacque Jones from the Cubs for Omar Infante. Jones effectively replaced Marcus Thames in left field, giving Detroit an outfield of Jones, Curtis Granderson, and Magglio Ordonez.

Next came the biggest transaction of the offseason, the one that firmly cemented the Tigers as the Central's team to beat in 2008 - they acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins for prospects Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, Mike Rabelo, Dallas Trahern, Eulogio De La Cruz and Burke Badenhop. Unofficially, their 2008 lineup should look something like this:

CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
DH Gary Sheffield
3B Miguel Cabrera
1B Carlos Guillen
SS Edgar Renteria
C Ivan Rodriguez
LF Jacque Jones

Fiddle with the lineup any way you like (and I might like to, because the middle of that lineup is awfully right-handed) and you still have a team that looks like it has a decent shot at scoring 1000 runs. Now their projected 2008 rotation:

RHP Justin Verlander
LHP Kenny Rogers
RHP Jeremy Bonderman
LHP Dontrelle Willis
LHP Nate Robertson

Looking superficially at the improvements the Tigers have made to their team, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that they'll catapult over the Indians as Central favorites, and failing that, still have a great shot at claiming the Wild Card from the Yankees.

Not so fast.

Something wasn't sitting right with me about the 2008 Tigers. Certainly they appeared to have the makings of a formidable offense and a reasonably deep rotation, especially if you think like I do that Verlander and Bonderman haven't yet reached the apex of their abilities. But I wasn't at all excited about Dontrelle Willis moving to the American League after 2 consecutive down years, not sold on Kenny Rogers or Bonderman's ability to stay healthy or effective, and not a big Nate Robertson fan. I wasn't convinced that the breakout season Granderson had in 2007 was entirely for real, not confident in Ordonez's ability to repeat his MVP-caliber year, pretty sure Renteria would regress to the mean, and positive that Gary Sheffield would injure himself at some point.

Most of my concerns were echoed by Bill James' projections in his 2008 handbook, then confirmed by the folks at Baseball Prospectus in their new annual.

The BP tome has a bunch of great little statistical tables thrown in as an appendix this season. One that caught my eye off the bat was entitled "VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) Decrease from 2007", which compares a player's 2007 VORP with their PECOTA (BP's awesome projection system) projected 2008 VORP. There are 15 players listed and 3 of them are Detroit Tigers. First on the list is Magglio Ordonez, projected to fall from a VORP of 87.8 to 31.1. Last year, Ordonez hit .363/.434/.595 - PECOTA is pegging him this year at .306/.376/.485. This is obviously a line that 98% of all MLB players would love to hit; however it has to be noted that he could lose 50 points of average, 60 points of OBP. and 110 points of SLG. This would not put him in the running for an MVP award in 2008.

Number 3 on BP's list is Curtis Granderson, projected to fall from a VORP of 67.3 to 26.2. They see a precipitous drop-off from his 2007 line of .302/.361/.552 to a 2008 line of .267/.339/.467. That's a nose-dive. It makes Granderson's OBP below-average for a leadoff hitter and cuts his SLG by nearly 100 points. It turns him from a fringe MVP candidate to a good complementary hitter. Part of Granderson's problem is his total inability to touch left-handed pitching; he hit .160/.225/.269 against lefties and in his career has struck out 30% of the time when facing them. Seeing that line, it's amazing to think he managed to hit .302, and it'd be foolish to think he'd be able to do so again without seriously altering his approach against lefties. At 27 he definitely isn't too old to change his ways, but 2 1/2 seasons have showed him to be an atrocious hitter against southpaws and last season he even regressed against them, having a career 202/.265/.366 against lefties.

Tied for 12th on the VORP loss list is new SS Edgar Renteria. BP thinks he'll shed 29.4 points of VORP, dropping from 47.5 to 18.1. Last season, Renteria hit an improbable .332/.390/.470. This year, he's projected by BP to hit .279/.343/.393. The former line from a SS is another fringe MVP candidate; the latter line is acceptable, above-average, but far from spectacular. It's conventional wisdom that Renteria's glove is a vast improvement over Guillen's, but in reality he's projected to be -4 Fielding Runs Above Average in 2008 while Guillen is projected to be -3 FRAA as a SS.

Not included in this table is 2B Placido Polanco, but his projected VORP loss of 26.7 should be noted as well, as it narrowly misses making the cut. Ditto Gary Sheffield, whose days as an impact hitter seem to be coming to a close. In his age 39 season, he's pegged at .274/.374/.462 and BP has him down for only 414 total plate appearances, probably due to his age and increased risk of injury. The above line would actually be welcome from Sheffield; it's how many at-bats he does it in that makes the difference, because his replacement is likely to be well below average. Detroit's system lacks an impact bat that's big-league ready and their bench doesn't provide anyone capable of replicating that kind of production.

Without going into more detail than anyone cares to read and having the wonderful people at Baseball Prospectus sue me for giving away too many of their secrets for free, I'll conclude with this: every member of the Detroit starting 9 is predicted to lose VORP off their 2007 scores, with Jacque Jones the worst of the bunch, managing a meager .9 score. This doesn't mean their offense will be bad - what it means is that it won't be as good as everyone thinks it will be, which is 1000 runs good. It's a lineup with a lot of potential for greatness, but also a lot of potential for regression and injury. So let's not crown them the second coming of the '27 Yankees just yet.

We haven't even gotten to their pitching. Briefly, we'll run through their rotation again, with their projected ERA, VORP, and VORP gain/loss:

Verlander - 3.93 / 34.7 / -11.2
Rogers - 4.66 / 7.4 / +1.8
Bonderman - 3.83 / 30.5 / +20.4
LHP Dontrelle Willis - 4.55 / /+19.3 / 18.6
LHP Nate Robertson - 4.42 / +20.3 / .7

So that's a positive, right? Four of the five are projected to gain VORP, and even Verlander's PECOTA stats seem a bit on the pessimistic side for me. I think he's a potential ace, whether he gets there this year or next. But a few things do stand out. Number one, the Tigers nominal 5th starter, Nate Robertson, could have a higher VORP rating and better ERA than Dontrelle Willis, for whom the Tigers just mortgaged their long-term future. Baseball Prospectus thinks that Willis has room for improvement, even in switching leagues, because the defense in Florida was so awful - and while I do agree, he'll still have the same bad third baseman he had last year and his defensive gains have to be mitigated by the fact that he's in a beast of a division and he's moving from a pitcher's park to a neutral park.

Number two, Kenny Rogers being relied upon in any capacity is a dicey proposition. While I respect most of what Rogers has accomplished in his career with fringe-average stuff, he'll be 43 and spent the vast majority of last year on the DL. When he wasn't on the DL, he was bad. Will any of this change? Does Rogers really have an upside at this point? What value does a league average innings eater have when he's no longer league average or able to eat any innings? With Andrew Miller off to Florida and Jair Jurrjens off to Atlanta, the Tigers don't have many in-house starting pitching options to turn to should anybody suffer an injury. This means they'll go back to relying on the Jason Grillis and Chad (or was it JD?) Durbins of the world, and we saw how well that worked out for Detroit last year.

Speaking of Andrew Miller, what does it say when the 23 year-old left-handed starting pitcher you traded has nearly as good a shot at being league average as 3 of your 5 starting pitchers, only with more upside? Miller was handled lousily by Detroit anyway, so he's probably better off with another team, but are the Tigers better off without him? For as much positive press as the superdeal with the Marlins got, you have to wonder whether the Tigers might have been better off stashing Miller in AAA waiting for the next Kenny Rogers injury, sticking Jair Jurrjens in their rotation, and signing a 3rd baseman or sticking with Brandon Inge. This is without considering the upside of Cameron Maybin or any of the other prospects the Marlins got.

Also, Todd Jones is still the closer. I don't think I need to go any further here.

All this said, am I being pessimistic? Absolutely. I think Verlander and Bonderman could take big leaps forward and become a dominant 1-2. I think Miguel Cabrera could be a monster in a good lineup. But I also see a team with some players clearly on the downside of their career that could either miss time or be ineffective. I see some ridiculous expectations being placed upon players who haven't won anything yet. And I see a great team in Cleveland that was a win away from the World Series, as well as improving teams in Kansas City and Chicago. Those teams won't be giving away W's to their division rivals anymore. The Tigers have as good a shot as anyone at winning 95 games and the World Series. But as every lazy writer in America will tell you, teams don't win games on paper. So here's another one: teams don't win games on paper. Don't crown the Tigers just yet.

The Young and the Restless

News flash: Three Major League Baseball players complained about their salaries this week.

Not news, right?

This wasn't Gary Sheffield complaining that he's being disrespected. No, instead a slew of baseball sophomores have decided that the long standing salary structure isn't good enough. Under baseball's rules, any player with less than three years of service time is not yet eligible for arbitration. They can try and negotiate a salary with their team, but the team is under no obligation to meet the player's asking price. In fact, the team can simply renew the players contract for an amount of their choosing without the player's consent. It's been done like this for a long, long time and it's not very often that you hear a player complain.

We've now heard it from three players. It started with Prince Fielder of the Milwaukee Brewers. Prince was anything but stately when he said:

"I'm not happy about it at all. The fact I've had to be renewed two years in a row, I'm not happy about it because there's a lot of guys who have the same amount of time that I do who have done a lot less and are getting paid a lot more. But my time is going to come. It's going to come quick, too."

In 2007, Fielder made $415,000. On Sunday, the Brewers raised him to $670,000 for the 2008 season for more than a 50% raise and certainly not chump change despite the numbers thrown around the majors the last six months.

Fielder is at a couple of disadvantages: he's a product of the me generation, born in the eighties where everyone was owed a life, a lifestyle, and a crapload of money. And, he plays for the Brewers, which provides little life and even less money.

In case you didn't know, Prince is the son of Cecil Fielder, aka Big Daddy, the large and not so in charge former slugger of Tigers and Yankee fame. Big Daddy apparently filed for bankruptcy in 2004. I can't find any reference to where his finances are now, but if his gambling addiction is as bad as reported, it may not be good.

Nick Markakis of the Orioles was next on the shafted list and he was reportedly "miffed." He was quoted in the Baltimore Sun as saying:

"That's just how the Orioles feel. I don't have much of a choice. I'm just going to have to deal with it."

Markakis was raised up to $455,000 from $400,000 last year. He didn't post near the numbers Fielder did and his road splits suggest that Camden Yards helped him a bit. He's also at the disadvantage of playing for a team that is not only terrible and owned by one of the worst people in baseball, but is also in the middle of a fire sale in hopes of getting younger for cheaper.

Our last candidate is Jonathan Papelbon of your World Champion Boston Red Sox, who is due to find out his contract on Thursday. Papelbon, in all of his wisdom, dropped this little nugget:

"I feel a certain obligation not only to myself and my family to make the money that I deserve but for the game of baseball. Mariano Rivera has been doing it for the past 10 years and with me coming up behind him I feel a certain obligation to do the same."

Papelbon has been with the club for two and a half seasons and he's already equating himself to Mariano Rivera, despite the fact that he wanted to be a starting pitcher last year. He made $425,500 in 2007. Do you know what Mariano Rivera made his second year in The Bigs? $131,125. It wasn't until Rivera hit arbitration that he received a significant raise.

Papelbon's assertion that he has an obligation to "the game of baseball" to make as much money as he can wins for quote of the week. Is he serving baseball by complaining about the salary structure in place? Is he serving his team by openly complaining about a contract that hasn't even been determined yet? Jonathan Papelbon is currently in the business of serving himself. Looking at what Mariano Rivera is making after twelve years of major league service is hardly a comparison.

But Papsmear wasn't finished talkin':

"It's a tough situation for me right now. I feel like with me being at the top of my position, I feel like that [salary] standard needs to be set and I'm the one to set that standard and I don't think that the Red Sox are really necessarily seeing eye to eye with me on that subject right now."

This type of idiocy needs to be looked at line by line:

"It's a tough situation for me right now." This indeed is a tough situation. Johnnycakes was forced to live on $425k last season, a figure most Americans don't see unless they're the CEO of a major corporation. But for a simple baseball player, it's a tough situation. Impatience can be difficult.

"I feel like with me being at the top of my position..." Top of his position? Paps is good, but he ranked 10th in the majors in saves and third in ERA for closers while pitching the second fewest innings of the top twelve guys.

"I feel like that [salary] standard needs to be set and I'm the one to set that standard and I don't think that the Red Sox are really necessarily seeing eye to eye with me on that subject right now." This is where it really falls apart. There is no underlying standard to what an above average player is supposed to make at this stage of their career. That's the point of the system. The Red Sox aren't seeing eye to eye because they are working within the system. Papelbon is complaining about it, not working in it.

This salary structure is in place for a specific purpose, which is to help control the inflated salaries across baseball. There is no way to put a limit on free agent salaries without instituting a salary cap, which Papelbon will probably tell you, flies in the face of what is best for the game of baseball. Since players like Johan Santana can only be paid by a handful of big market teams, there needs to be a structure in place that allows the Oakland A's, the Milwaukee Brewers, and other small market clubs to compete.

One of the ways to achieve that is by controlling the cost of young players. The first two years basically reside at the major league minimum and then a raised contract. After that, it's arbitration or a negotiated salary.

It's a reasonable system in place to protect an unreasonable market. And logically, does it make sense to give a player like Papelbon a five year contract worth $75 million after two and a half seasons and 160 innings of pro ball? Does that compare to Mariano Rivera on any level?

The players have done very little to prevent the escalating salaries in baseball. A salary cap probably isn't the answer given how ridiculous the NBA cap works. The last thing you want to see is a player getting thrown into a deal simply to clear room for another player to come in. It's made a mockery of NBA trades.

Giving the players more control of their salaries so early in their career would be the death knell for many small market teams. Its this structure that gives the Brewers, etc the ability to compete at the level they are. The simple fact is that all three of these players will have their day in the monetary sun. And if, by some circumstance, they flame out before then, they probably wouldn't have deserved the big bucks in the first place.

I propose that in the next collective bargaining agreement, the players offer to relinquish unilateral control of baseball's drug testing policies. In return, maybe the owners can rework the salary structure.

I'm not counting on either of those happening.

Non-roster guys with a chance to stick - Part Three (The Finale)

The final installment features a Sal Fasano sighting and a bunch of old dudes in San Francisco - shocking, right?

Philadelphia Phillies: Kris Benson, SP

This is a pretty obvious fit; the Phillies are starved for starting pitching and Benson was starved for a job. On paper the Phils rotation lines up as Brett Myers, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, and Adam Eaton. Does that look like a starting 5 that can compete with the Mets - or even the Braves, for that matter? That's before even considering that Kendrick struck out an appalling 49 hitters in 121 IP, Jamie Moyer is 45 years old and had an ERA+ of 92 last season, Myers spent last season in the bullpen, Cole Hamels finished the year with elbow problems and a drop in velocity, and Adam Eaton is Adam Eaton (6.29 ERA, 73 ERA+, 1.627 WHIP). And the Mets have Johan Santana. Do I think Benson is going to cure all that ails the Phillies? Absolutely not. But someone has to start games for the Phillies and all five of their guys have significant question marks. Things could get real ugly in Philly this season. Or they could hit enough to make it not even matter. Count on the ugly.

Pittsburgh Pirates: T.J Beam, RP

Beam is a hard throwing former Yankees prospect who ran afoul of Joe Torre by not being immediately awesome. And if he had been immediately awesome, Torre would have ran afoul of Beam's career by using him for the next 46 consecutive games and personally scheduling him an appointment with James Andrews. So consider it a blessing in disguise, Mr. Beam, that Carl Pavano is the stand-up guy that he is - if he had accepted minor league deal instead of insisting that he remain on the major league roster (even though he has no hope or intention of pitching for the Yankees ever again) - you never would have been bumped from the 40-man and wound up in Pirates camp. Beam struck out 45 in 47.1 IP at AAA last season, while walking only 10, and he's with an organization starved for pitching. Good match.

Seattle Mariners: Greg Norton, 4C

The Mariners are positioning themselves to have a bench with only one left-handed bat - and that's Brad Wilkerson, who might become a starter if the Mariners determine that Wladimir Balentien isn't ready. Norton is a switch-hitter, plays all four corners, and in 2006 with Tampa Bay hit .296/.374/.520 in nearly 300 ABs. Norton has always had some pop and some patience which is why it's puzzling that he's so rarely employed at the major league level. I think he's a good fit with this team, particularly with Richie Sexson having just "hit" .185/.293/.392 against righties last season.

St. Louis Cardinals: Colby Rasmus, CF

Who plays in the outfield for this team? Jim Edmonds' departure and Juan Encarnacion's reportedly career-ending eye injury have left the Cards riddled with holes. Of all the outfielders on their 40-man, the only natural center-fielder I see is Skip Schumaker. Do you want Skip Schumaker starting in center for your team, especially if you insist you intend to contend? LaRussa may intend to have an adventure with Rick Ankiel in center and start Chris Duncan and Ryan Ludwick at the corners, but that looks like an awfully unproductive group, particularly if you're as convinced as I am that Rick Ankiel will be exposed badly this year. And I'm not even going to comment on the absurdity of Juan Gonzalez being in anyone's camp. So that leaves super-prospect Colby Rasmus, a 21 year-old center fielder who hit .275/.381/.551 at AA last season. He walked 70 times and swiped 18 bases while being caught just 3 times. If any team is likely to sign an unemployed guy like Corey Patterson or Kenny Lofton before spring is out, it's the Cardinals. But I take the chance on the young guy with power, speed, and patience.

San Diego Padres: Jeff DaVanon, OF

I still like DaVanon as a switch-hitter who can play all three outfield positions well and run a little bit. To me, that's your ideal bench player. The Padres acquired Jim Edmonds to play center every day, but Edmonds is nearly a lock to miss some time this year and he hit .198/.286/.346 against lefties last year. Scott Hairston might also be exposed as an everyday player and he's not a natural OF. In addition, the Padres may try to push another natural IF in Chase Headley into left field. I think with an outfield like that, you need a competent defensive sub who can fill in at all three corners and spell Edmonds against lefties once a week or so. DaVanon is the closest thing to that guy in the Padres camp.

San Francisco Giants: Scott Williamson, RP

Do I have to pick anyone here? Even the Giants spring training invitees are old and devoid of upside - reliever Keichi Yabu is 40, 1B Scott McClain is 36, RP Bartolome Fortunato is 34 (what a name!) and RP Scott Williamson is 32. I'll pick Williamson because he's a spring chicken by comparison and his career never seems to die despite the fact that he hasn't been healthy for 4 years. I understand the intrigue with his arm because he strikes out a ton of guys, but he's almost never on the mound. I guess he's the closest thing to an upside play the Giants have in their camp. Sorry, Giants fans. Long year ahead.

Tampa Bay Rays: Evan Longoria, 3B

Akinori Iwamura has already begun his transition to 2B (where his bat plays a lot better anyway) in preparation for the arrival of perhaps the most highly-regarded prospect in baseball. The Rays are going to be a lot of fun to watch this year and a real pain to play. No team will be looking forward to a three-game series that lines up Scott Kazmir, James Shields, and Matt Garza. BJ Upton is only getting better, Carlos Pena has established himself as a force, Carl Crawford, who seems like he's been around forever, is still only 26...and then there's Longoria. The 22 year-old was the first overall pick by the then Devil Rays in 2006 and here he is two years later, ready to inherit the everyday 3B job after hitting .304/.388/.546 with 44 home runs in just 2 minor league seasons. I think it's safe to say he'll be real good, and as soon as this year.

Texas Rangers: Chris Shelton, 1B

The Rangers picked up Ben Broussard this offseason, and Broussard has, correctly, been identified by all of his past employers as a platoon player (.227/.290/.399 career against southpaws). But looking at the Texas' 40-man roster, it looks at first glance like they might play Big Ben everyday due to lack of other options. But among their non-roster invitees is forgotten man Chris Shelton. Remember in 2006 when the Tigers hit the ground running and Shelton was leading the majors in basically every hitting category through April? Seems like a long time ago. When Shelton regressed to the mean, Jim Leyland and staff got impatient and banished Shelton to the minors while acquiring Sean Casey. Has that move ever made sense to anyone? Anyway, aside from drawing 83 walks, Shelton wasn't all that impressive in AAA last year, but if any player besides Elijah Dukes screams "change of scenery" more than Shelton, I don't know who he is (actually, I think I misheard; Dukes was screaming "incarcerate me!"). I think he could form a pretty good two-headed monster with Broussard and give the Rangers at least league-average production at 1B.

Toronto Blue Jays: Travis Snider, OF

Sal Fasano is in the Blue Jays camp. I root for no man over Sal Fasano. I lived in Philadelphia during the "Sal's Pals" craze, when Fasano had an epic Fu Manchu and sent free pizza up to his fan club in the upper deck every night. He was traded to the Yankees right before the deadline that year (2006) and the hearts of thousands of cheesesteak-eaters broke, especially when pictures of Sal, sans beard due to Yankee facial hair rules, were seen in Philadelphia newspapers. As much as I love Fasano and want him to succeed, I'd have to put him at least fourth on the catching depth chart in Toronto behind Gregg Zaun, Rod Barajas, and Curtis Thigpen. To be honest, this Toronto roster looks to be competition-free for the most part. I suppose there's a possibility that the Blue Jays stop calling Matt Stairs an outfielder, Reed Johnson isn't healthy or good, and Travis Snider passes Adam Lind on the Blue Jays depth chart, but it's remote. For the record, Snider is a 20 year-old lefty who has posted a .316/.388/.538 line in 2 minor league seasons. He's a good bet to make an impact in the future, but I don't think his time is now.

Washington Nationals: Humberto Cota, C

The Nats have a dude named Jim Ed Warden, and true to the mental image that popped in my head the second I saw that name, he's 6'7" and from Tennessee. Unfortunately, he's 28 and not much of a prospect. I think the most likely man to make the opening day roster is Humberto Cota, a catcher who has spent parts of seven years in the majors with the Pirates. The Nationals signed Paul Lo Duca, but his offseason knee surgery was enough of a worry to encourage them to pick up Johnny Estrada. Obviously if both of these guys are healthy come Opening Day, the Nats are covered in the catching department. But if Lo Duca isn't ready to go by then, Cota is the most experienced backup catcher they have. I'd imagine they'll want Jesus Flores to get a full year of at bats in the minors after snatching him from the Mets in the Rule V last year and storing him on the 40-man all season. That would make Cota the token backup. Not an exciting choice, but there it is.

That concludes my nerdy and exhaustive look at non-roster invitees this spring. Let the competition begin.

Bonds Patient Once Again

Spring Training has started. Even Alex Rodriguez is supposed to show up on Wednesday. The seeds of a new season have been planted.

And yet, Barry Bonds does not have a contract.

I never thought the day would come when a player would alienate the baseball community so much that he could post at least a .999 OPS over the previous sixteen seasons and not have a job at spring training. It's defies logic. But Barry, once again, has done the seemingly impossible.

Of course, the lack of a contract probably stems from his salary demands, which is likely a ton of money for a guy who can't play the outfield, hasn't run out a ground ball in four seasons, alienates most of the players around him, and is currently under indictment for federal perjury. Indeed, Bonds comes with a large set of baggage that few could match. And, he has an ego to boot.

Then there's the little matter of the PR hit your team would take upon announcing that Bonds has been signed. Nothing raises a team's morale more than hearing their hometown fans boo one of the greatest hitters of all time, shouting "Balco!" and steroids every time he comes to the plate. Sure, none of it will bother Barry. He's lived through it already and probably would perform regardless. And yet, the fans probably wouldn't relent. Barry may be the one player who can't win over the hometown crowd just by hitting the cover off the ball.

When the Giants decided they were done with Barry Bonds, it may have officially closed the door on one of the greatest, most controversial athletes to ever play the game. Barry thrived in San Francisco. The city somehow managed to look away from all the rumors and speculation that circled Bonds and gave him the benefit of the doubt as he knocked off record after record. Once he finally toppled Henry Aaron, the Giants finally had enough, announcing they wouldn't offer him another contract.

Barry seemed stunned. After all he did for San Francisco, the records, the attendance, the in-fighting, the bad press, the controversy, his entourage, his inflexibility. How could they cut him loose?

If Barry can't exist in San Francisco, where his name is as remains as untarnished as it could possibly be, how could another major league team even consider signing on such a nightmare?
But if you're team needs a power hitting DH, what a way to fill the hole.